Analysis: Trump heads into his convention in an unprecedented position

Poll of the week: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 53% to President Donald Trump’s 41% nationally among registered voters.Biden’s advantage in the average of all polls puts Biden above 50% and ahead by around 9 points, depending on how you exactly average.

What’s the point: Trump enters the Republican National Convention in an unusual position for an incumbent: trailing. It’s not just that he’s trailing, though; he’s trailing by a lot.

If Trump is to come back and win this election, he’s going to have to rewrite the record books.

There have been only three incumbents who were down by more than a point at the beginning of the convention period since 1940: Harry Truman in 1948, Gerald Ford in 1976 and Jimmy Carter in 1980. Only Truman, down by about 10 points, had a deficit that matched Trump’s at the current time. But even Truman didn’t have an opponent who was already pulling in more than half the vote.

The potentially good news for Trump is that because he’s in an unprecedented position, it’s difficult to ascertain his true chance of a comeback, especially during a global pandemic. Further, it’s noteworthy that Truman actually did win in 1948. Ford closed his 7-point deficit pre-conventions against Carter in 1976, but still lost by 2 points.

One way in which Trump is clearly in a worse position than either Truman or Ford is his own popularity. Truman’s net approval rating (approve – disapprove) was only about -5 points on the eve of the conventions in 1948. Ford’s was actually positive. Trump’s net approval rating is about -12 points.

The two presidents with net approval ratings in the negative double digits going into the conventions since 1940 both lost. In fact, Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush were the two presidents who lost reelection by the largest margins in the polling era.

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN