Analysis: 2020 is not 2016, but don’t count Trump out yet

Even though the political landscape has changed, three weeks is still a long time until election day.

Three weeks from election day, Donald Trump is trailing in the polls and some Democrats are plotting for the next four years under a Democratic president. That was the scene in 2016 and it’s shaping up to be the same in 2020, as Joe Biden’s solid, sustained lead in United States polls has increased in the last week.

Not so fast, President Trump’s campaign officials say. They are quick to remind how his candidacy was written off by virtually everyone, including many Republicans, four years ago this week, as he dealt with the fallout from the release of tape filmed behind the scenes of the US TV show Access Hollywood, in which Trump was recorded making vulgar remarks about women. Yet due to a unique political environment and a late-October surprise when the FBI reopened and then quickly closed its investigation into candidate Hillary Clinton’s emails, Trump was able to eke out victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, delivering him an improbable victory.

The world has changed enormously in four years, as has the political situation in which Trump finds himself. Instead of railing against the establishment as an agent of change, Trump is now in charge and is being blamed for mishandling a once-in-a-century pandemic that has rocked the country and has directly affected him, hospitalising him and sidelining him from a week-and-a-half of crucial campaign travel.

That makes the ‘Look what Trump did in 2016’ a poor argument for why he may or may not still have a chance this year.

That being said, despite the massive momentum Biden seems to have and the political corner Trump has painted himself into, there are still small glimmers for Trump and his team, if he can successfully shake things up in these final three weeks.

Biden’s large, consistent lead

While Hillary Clinton regularly led Trump throughout the general election in 2016, Joe Biden is currently holding a historic lead in national polls, finding himself in the best position for a challenger to an incumbent since 1936. Biden hasn’t trailed in a national poll since he clinched the nomination this spring. He has only polled below 50 percent in one national poll (out of 11) this month. And he currently holds a 10.6 percentage point lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

Even in battleground states, Biden is leading or statistically tied in all of the ones Trump flipped in 2016, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. In addition, Biden is giving Trump a run for his money in some states that he won easily or that traditionally vote Republican, like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.

Among specific voter groups, Biden has increased his share of support over Hillary Clinton among independents, older voters, women voters and suburban voters.

By Steve Chaggaris – aljazeera.com