In a recent article, the Turkish pro-government media outlet Daily Sabah introduced the concept of the “Aleppo model” — a scheme to make areas in northern Syria safe, secure and livable in order to encourage the repatriation of Syrian refugees. This follows a survey by the UN refugee agency UNHCR that showed 70 percent of those displaced are unwilling to return for at least five years despite the difficult conditions and discrimination they face in host countries. Refugees cited security concerns, as well as lack of basic services and work opportunities. What does the Aleppo model mean for Syrian President Bashar Assad?

The refugee question was a main point of contention in the recent Turkish elections. The opposition focused on the issue, accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of maintaining an open-door policy, and proposed normalizing relations with Assad as a solution to the problem. However, Erdogan’s efforts in this regard have yielded little, mainly due to the rigidity of the Syrian regime, which has based talks with Turkiye on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from the northwest of the country, a totally unrealistic demand since it would leave opponents to the regime at the mercy of Assad.

Turkiye also cannot leave its borders unprotected and vulnerable to terrorist attacks and drug trafficking. Here, Erdogan faces a dilemma. He wants to ensure the return of refugees, one of his main campaign promises. However, returning them is almost impossible while Assad is in power. Ahmet Uysal, head of ORSAM, a Turkish research center focusing on Arab countries, recently published an article in which he said that Assad is unwilling and incapable of securing the refugees’ return, adding that those who have returned have been subject to arbitrary arrest, torture and rape. Assad does not want to see the people who opposed him come back home.

Even areas loyal to Assad are witnessing protests demanding his departure due to the dire state of the economy

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Assad is also incapable of providing them with their basic needs. Even areas loyal to Assad are witnessing protests demanding his departure due to the dire state of the country’s economy. Hence, the most logical step to take is to bypass Assad and negotiate with his patrons. Daily Sabah mentioned that Turkiye is in discussions with Syria and Russia. With talks between Turkiye and Syria at a standstill, Erdogan is probably banking on Russia to make the “Aleppo model” a reality. It is inconceivable that Assad will willingly cede territory to Turkiye, having asked the latter to withdraw before starting any discussion.

Any joint administration or the presence of Assad forces will also deter refugees from going back. As Uysal detailed, experience has shown that despite an amnesty and promises of safety, opponents of the regime who returned were subject to arrest and punishment. Also, Assad has not acted in line with Russian interests, which are to end the war and begin reconstruction. On the contrary, he has refused to make any concessions to the opposition. In this respect, he has skillfully played the Russians against the Iranians, positioning himself as the reference between the two.

Despite promises of safety, opponents of the regime who returned have been subject to arrest and punishment

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

However, due to the Ukraine war, Turkiye is proving to be of more importance to Russia. Meanwhile, all Turkish incursions have been approved either by Russia or the US. If Turkiye acts to put Aleppo under its control, it will be a fatal blow to Assad. Aleppo is the commercial heart of Syria. Losing the city will strengthen the protest movement across the country and, ultimately, force Iran and Assad to compromise. Hence, in addition to creating a suitable environment for a safe, voluntary and dignified return for refugees in accordance with UN resolution 2254, the Aleppo model can help break the status quo and force a solution on Syria.

If the Aleppo model succeeds — with Russia and Turkiye bringing stability, Qatar financing reconstruction, and refugees returning in large numbers — it will be a game changer. It could set an example for other arrangements. Why not have a Daraa model, whereby Russia enters into a similar agreement with Jordan? Despite normalization with Assad, Jordan has not seen any real improvement in the regime’s behavior, and is still vulnerable to illegal drug and weapons smuggling.

The Aleppo model is likely to garner Arab acquiescence, if not endorsement, since normalization with Assad led to nowhere. At the Arab League Summit in May, the Syrian leader was supposed to show some goodwill, but instead displayed only defiance. In a nutshell, the success of the Aleppo model will show that Assad is a burden for Arab countries as well as for his allies, and is very much dispensable.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

L’article What does the ‘Aleppo model’ mean for Assad? est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won re-election, according to the country’s Supreme Election Council and unofficial data from the state-run Anadolu Agency, in a tense run-off after he failed to secure more than 50 percent of votes required for an outright victory in the first round on May 14.

With almost all of the votes counted, Erdogan received 52.14 percent of votes in the second round on Sunday, beating his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who won 47.86 percent, according to the Supreme Election Council.

The result is expected to be confirmed in the coming days.

The vote seals Erdogan’s place in history as he extends his 20-year rule for a further five years.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s supporters celebrated well into the night after Turkey’s long-time president secured another five years in power.

« The entire nation of 85 million won, » he told cheering crowds outside his enormous palace on the edge of Ankara.

But his call for unity sounded hollow as he ridiculed his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu – and took aim at a jailed Kurdish leader and the LGBT community.

The opposition leader did not explicitly concede victory.

Complaining of « the most unfair election in recent years », Mr Kilicdaroglu said the president’s political party had mobilised all the means of the state against him.

President Erdogan ended with just over 52% of the vote, based on near-complete unofficial results. Almost half the electorate in this deeply polarised country did not back his authoritarian vision of Turkey.

Ultimately, Mr Kilicdaroglu was no match for the well-drilled Erdogan campaign, even if he took the president to a run-off second round for the first time since the post was made directly elected in 2014.

But he barely dented his rival’s first-round lead, falling more than two million votes behind.

The president made the most of his victory, with an initial speech to supporters atop a bus in Turkey’s biggest city, Istanbul, followed after dark by a balcony address from his palace to an adoring crowd that he numbered at 320,000 people.

« It is not just us who won, Turkey won, » he declared, calling it one of the most important elections in Turkish history.

He taunted his opponent’s defeat with the words « Bye, bye, Kemal » – a chant that was also taken up by his supporters in Ankara.

Mr Erdogan poured scorn on the main opposition party’s increase in its number of MPs in the parliamentary vote two weeks earlier. The true number had fallen to 129, he said, because the party had handed over dozens of seats to its allies.

He also condemned the opposition alliance’s pro-LGBT policies, which he said were in contrast with his own focus on families.

The run-up to the vote had become increasingly rancorous. In one incident, an opposition Good party official was fatally stabbed in front of a party office in the northern coastal town of Ordu.

The motive for Erhan Kurt’s killing was not clear, but a leading opposition official blamed youths celebrating the election result.

Although the final results were not confirmed, the Supreme Election Council said there was no doubt who had won.

It is highly unusual for the palace complex to be opened to the public – but so was this result, extending his period in power to a quarter of a century.

Supporters came from all over Ankara to taste the victory. There were Islamic chants, while some laid Turkish flags on the grass to pray.

For a night, Turkey’s economic crisis was forgotten. One supporter, Seyhan, said it was all a lie: « Nobody is hungry. We are very happy with his economy policies. He will do even better in the next five years. »

But the president admitted that tackling inflation was Turkey’s most urgent issue.

The question is whether he is prepared to take the necessary measures to do so. At an annual rate of almost 44%, inflation seeps into everyone’s lives.

The cost of food, rent and other everyday goods has soared, exacerbated by Mr Erdogan’s refusal to observe orthodox economic policy and raise interest rates.

The Turkish lira has hit record lows against the dollar and the central bank has struggled to meet surging demand for foreign currency.

« If they continue with low interest rates, as Erdogan has signalled, the only other option is stricter capital controls, » warns Selva Demiralp, professor of economics at Koc university in Istanbul.

Economics was far from the minds of Erdogan supporters, who spoke of their pride at his powerful position in the world and his hard line on fighting « terrorists », by which they meant Kurdish militants.

President Erdogan has accused his opposite number of siding with terrorists, and criticised him for promising to free a former co-leader of Turkey’s second largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish HDP.

Selahattin Demirtas has been languishing in jail since 2016, despite the European Court of Human Rights ordering his release.

Mr Erdogan said while he was in power, Mr Demirtas would stay behind bars.

He also promised to prioritise rebuilding in areas hit by February’s twin earthquakes and bring about the « voluntary » return of a million Syrian refugees.

Crowds flocked to Istanbul’s Taksim Square, with many coming from the Middle East and the Gulf.

Palestinians from Jordan wrapped Turkish flags around their shoulders. A Tunisian visitor, Alaa Nassar, said Mr Erdogan had not just made improvements to his own country, « he is also supporting Arabs and the Muslim world ».

For all the celebrations, the idea of unity in this polarised country seems farther away than ever.

Since a failed coup in 2016, Mr Erdogan has abolished the post of prime minister and amassed extensive powers, which his opponent had pledged to roll back.

One voter outside an Ankara polling station on Sunday said he wanted to see an end to the brain drain that began with the post-coup purge. There is a risk that it may now intensify.

Turkey’s defeated opposition will now have to regroup ahead of local elections in 2024.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a high-profile favourite among opposition supporters, appealed to them not to despair.

He reminded them on Monday that the opposition had defeated the ruling party in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 months after they had lost the last presidential election.

That was only achieved after making changes, he explained: « We will never expect different results by doing the same things. »

World Opinions + Agencies

L’article Analysis. Turkish election victory for Erdogan leaves nation divided.. Video est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.