The US is seen with growing suspicion within Kurdish communities and elites, which is changing political calculations.

Last month during the violent clashes between Kurdish forces and the Syrian army, the United States delivered a devastating message to Syria’s Kurds: Their partnership with Washington had “expired“. This was not merely a statement of shifting priorities – it was a clear signal that the US was siding with Damascus and abandoning the Kurds at their most vulnerable moment.

For the Kurds across the region watching events unfold, the implications were profound. The US is no longer perceived as a reliable partner or supporter of minorities.

This development is likely to have an impact not just on the Kurdish community in Syria but also those in Iraq, Turkiye and Iran.

Fears of repeat marginalisation in Syria

US support for Damascus under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa paves the way for a centralised Syrian state – an arrangement that Kurds throughout the region view with deep suspicion. Their wariness is rooted in bitter historical experience.

Centralised states in the Middle East have historically marginalised, excluded and assimilated Kurdish minorities. The prospect of such a system emerging in Syria, with US backing, represents a fundamental divergence from Kurdish hopes for the region’s future.

The approach the Assad regime to the Kurdish question was built on systematic denial. Kurds were not recognised as a distinct collective group within Syria’s national fabric; the state banned the public use of the Kurdish language and Kurdish names. Many Kurds were denied citizenship.

Al-Sharaa’s presidential decree of January 16 promised Kurds some rights while the January 30 agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) included limited recognition of Kurdish collective identity, including acknowledgment of “Kurdish regions” – terminology conspicuously absent from Syria’s political vocabulary and government documents in the past.

These represent incremental gains, but they are unfolding within a transitional government structure that aims for centralisation as its ultimate objective. That is why Syrian Kurds remain suspicious of whether the promises made today will be upheld in the future.

While a consensus has emerged among the majority of Kurdish groups that armed resistance is not strategically viable at this stage, any future engagement with the US will be perceived with mistrust.

Possibility of renewed Shia-Kurdish alliance in Iraq

After years of power rivalries between Shia and Kurdish parties in Iraq, both groups are now observing developments in Syria and potential changes in Iran with a shared sense of threat and common interests. If in 2003, their alliance was driven by a shared past – the suffering under Saddam Hussein’s regime – today it is being guided by a shared future shaped by fears of being marginalised in the region.

At both the political and popular levels, Shia and Kurdish parties and communities have had much more in common over the past few weeks than in the past. This convergence is evident not only in elite political calculations but also in public sentiment across both communities.

For the first time in recent memory, both Kurdish elites and ordinary citizens in Iraq are no longer enthusiastic about regime change in Iran, a position that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

In addition, last month, Iraq’s Shia Coordination Framework, an alliance of its Shia political parties, nominated Nouri al-Maliki for prime minister, the most powerful position in the Iraqi government. Remarkably, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the dominant Kurdish political force, welcomed the nomination.

The KDP’s support for al-Maliki was not solely a reaction to anger over US policy in Syria. It was also rooted in Iraqi and Kurdish internal politics. The endorsement is part of an ongoing rivalry between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over Iraq’s presidency, an office reserved for the Kurds. The KDP needs allies in Baghdad to ensure its candidate, rather than the PUK’s, secures the position.

However, Washington might see an alignment between the KDP-led Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq and an al-Maliki-led government or a similar government in Baghdad as not conducive to its interests in Iraq, especially its efforts to curb Iranian influence.

Before casting blame, Washington should ask itself why the Kurds feels compelled to adopt this position. The Kurdish stance cannot be fully understood without factoring US policy in Syria into the discussion. From a Kurdish perspective, the US has not been a neutral arbiter in Syria.

The peace process in Turkiye

Over the past year, many believed that the sustainability of Turkiye’s peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) hinged on a resolution of the Kurdish question in Syria and the fate of the SDF.

The violent clashes between Damascus, backed by Ankara and Washington, and the SDF threatened to close the door on negotiations. Remarkably, however, not all avenues have been shut.

It now appears the two issues are being treated as separate files. Negotiations with the PKK are likely to continue within Turkiye’s borders, and crucially, PKK leaders have not translated their disappointment over the weakening of the SDF into a definitive rejection of talks with Ankara.

What sustains this dynamic is that the SDF has not been entirely dismantled, leaving some breathing room for continued dialogue between Ankara and the PKK.

The Iranian Kurds

The Iranian Kurds, although farther away from Syria, have also observed events there and made their conclusions. The abandonment of the SDF reveals the unpredictable nature of US support for the region’s minorities.

In light of this and given continuing US incitement against the Iranian regime, it is quite significant that the Iranian Kurds collectively and deliberately decided not to be at the forefront of the recent protests or allow themselves to be instrumentalised by Western media.

The Kurdish community in Iran is not enthusiastic about a potential return of Reza Pahlavi, who clearly enjoys support from Washington, and the restoration of the shah’s legacy, which was also oppressive. Iranian opposition groups – many of them based in the West – have not offered a better prospect for the Kurdish question. There is widespread fear that the current regime could simply be replaced by another with no guarantee for Kurdish rights.

Some Iraq-based Iranian Kurdish armed groups did carry out attacks on Iranian positions near the Iran-Iraq border. But the main Iranian Kurdish armed actors chose not to engage directly or escalate militarily. Their calculations are based on the uncertainty about the endgame envisioned by Israel and the US and the reality that any escalation would provoke Iranian retaliation against Iraqi Kurds.

With each abandonment of its Kurdish allies, the US further erodes the foundation of trust upon which its local partnerships rest. Iraqi and Syrian Kurds have learned to live with American unreliability, but this arrangement may not endure indefinitely. When it fractures, the consequences for US influence in the region could be profound.

By Kamaran Palani – Aljazeera

L’article Analysis. US abandoning the SDF has impacted Kurds across the region est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won re-election, according to the country’s Supreme Election Council and unofficial data from the state-run Anadolu Agency, in a tense run-off after he failed to secure more than 50 percent of votes required for an outright victory in the first round on May 14.

With almost all of the votes counted, Erdogan received 52.14 percent of votes in the second round on Sunday, beating his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who won 47.86 percent, according to the Supreme Election Council.

The result is expected to be confirmed in the coming days.

The vote seals Erdogan’s place in history as he extends his 20-year rule for a further five years.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s supporters celebrated well into the night after Turkey’s long-time president secured another five years in power.

« The entire nation of 85 million won, » he told cheering crowds outside his enormous palace on the edge of Ankara.

But his call for unity sounded hollow as he ridiculed his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu – and took aim at a jailed Kurdish leader and the LGBT community.

The opposition leader did not explicitly concede victory.

Complaining of « the most unfair election in recent years », Mr Kilicdaroglu said the president’s political party had mobilised all the means of the state against him.

President Erdogan ended with just over 52% of the vote, based on near-complete unofficial results. Almost half the electorate in this deeply polarised country did not back his authoritarian vision of Turkey.

Ultimately, Mr Kilicdaroglu was no match for the well-drilled Erdogan campaign, even if he took the president to a run-off second round for the first time since the post was made directly elected in 2014.

But he barely dented his rival’s first-round lead, falling more than two million votes behind.

The president made the most of his victory, with an initial speech to supporters atop a bus in Turkey’s biggest city, Istanbul, followed after dark by a balcony address from his palace to an adoring crowd that he numbered at 320,000 people.

« It is not just us who won, Turkey won, » he declared, calling it one of the most important elections in Turkish history.

He taunted his opponent’s defeat with the words « Bye, bye, Kemal » – a chant that was also taken up by his supporters in Ankara.

Mr Erdogan poured scorn on the main opposition party’s increase in its number of MPs in the parliamentary vote two weeks earlier. The true number had fallen to 129, he said, because the party had handed over dozens of seats to its allies.

He also condemned the opposition alliance’s pro-LGBT policies, which he said were in contrast with his own focus on families.

The run-up to the vote had become increasingly rancorous. In one incident, an opposition Good party official was fatally stabbed in front of a party office in the northern coastal town of Ordu.

The motive for Erhan Kurt’s killing was not clear, but a leading opposition official blamed youths celebrating the election result.

Although the final results were not confirmed, the Supreme Election Council said there was no doubt who had won.

It is highly unusual for the palace complex to be opened to the public – but so was this result, extending his period in power to a quarter of a century.

Supporters came from all over Ankara to taste the victory. There were Islamic chants, while some laid Turkish flags on the grass to pray.

For a night, Turkey’s economic crisis was forgotten. One supporter, Seyhan, said it was all a lie: « Nobody is hungry. We are very happy with his economy policies. He will do even better in the next five years. »

But the president admitted that tackling inflation was Turkey’s most urgent issue.

The question is whether he is prepared to take the necessary measures to do so. At an annual rate of almost 44%, inflation seeps into everyone’s lives.

The cost of food, rent and other everyday goods has soared, exacerbated by Mr Erdogan’s refusal to observe orthodox economic policy and raise interest rates.

The Turkish lira has hit record lows against the dollar and the central bank has struggled to meet surging demand for foreign currency.

« If they continue with low interest rates, as Erdogan has signalled, the only other option is stricter capital controls, » warns Selva Demiralp, professor of economics at Koc university in Istanbul.

Economics was far from the minds of Erdogan supporters, who spoke of their pride at his powerful position in the world and his hard line on fighting « terrorists », by which they meant Kurdish militants.

President Erdogan has accused his opposite number of siding with terrorists, and criticised him for promising to free a former co-leader of Turkey’s second largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish HDP.

Selahattin Demirtas has been languishing in jail since 2016, despite the European Court of Human Rights ordering his release.

Mr Erdogan said while he was in power, Mr Demirtas would stay behind bars.

He also promised to prioritise rebuilding in areas hit by February’s twin earthquakes and bring about the « voluntary » return of a million Syrian refugees.

Crowds flocked to Istanbul’s Taksim Square, with many coming from the Middle East and the Gulf.

Palestinians from Jordan wrapped Turkish flags around their shoulders. A Tunisian visitor, Alaa Nassar, said Mr Erdogan had not just made improvements to his own country, « he is also supporting Arabs and the Muslim world ».

For all the celebrations, the idea of unity in this polarised country seems farther away than ever.

Since a failed coup in 2016, Mr Erdogan has abolished the post of prime minister and amassed extensive powers, which his opponent had pledged to roll back.

One voter outside an Ankara polling station on Sunday said he wanted to see an end to the brain drain that began with the post-coup purge. There is a risk that it may now intensify.

Turkey’s defeated opposition will now have to regroup ahead of local elections in 2024.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a high-profile favourite among opposition supporters, appealed to them not to despair.

He reminded them on Monday that the opposition had defeated the ruling party in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 months after they had lost the last presidential election.

That was only achieved after making changes, he explained: « We will never expect different results by doing the same things. »

World Opinions + Agencies

L’article Analysis. Turkish election victory for Erdogan leaves nation divided.. Video est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

The country could finally tear off the straitjacket it has worn for years. But its president is a tiger caught by the tail – what will he do if he loses?

This weekend, my country will choose. If the unlikely unity coalition of opposition parties beats the goliath that is President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey will be able to tear off the straitjacket that it has worn for years. If the regime wins, however, we will be mourning a country that once was, that could have been.

This is a clash between the forces of autocracy and democracy, between cruelty and basic morals. There is a real chance that Erdoğan will lose because six opposition parties have formed a united coalition, led by the secularist Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Not since the huge anti-government Gezi park protests in 2013 have the people of Turkey put their eternal conflicts to the side like this in order to take on Erdoğan’s palace, which effectively runs everything from the economy to the judiciary.

The party-state he has built, under the banner of his Justice and Development party (AKP), has not only undermined all the democratic mechanisms in Turkey but also created a model citizen who believes in submission to the regime – the millions who see themselves in Erdoğan’s image. There is even now a social problem of ordinary people acting violently against doctors – a social group often portrayed as an anti-government elite. Doctors, for their part, have been leaving Turkey in thousands, as have academics, engineers and well-educated people, who feel unsafe in a country increasingly defined by a combination of conservative religiosity and thuggish politics. Just this Sunday, an opposition bus in the AKP-run Erzurum, east Turkey, was pelted with stones during a rally. Last month, the interior minister, Süleyman Soylu, denigrated the elections themselves, comparing them to a “coup” attempt. Meanwhile, the list of people – from university students asking for academic freedom to opposition parties – who Erdoğan calls “terrorists” grows longer by the day.

The anti-government coalition brings together a wide range of political actors, from ultra-nationalists to social democrats, and has gained support from the Kurdish community and the socialists. They all know that if they lose, many of them will end up in Erdoğan’s massive prisons, like Selahattin Demirtaş, the Kurdish political leader who was a candidate for the presidency in previous elections before he ended up in jail after what was effectively a mock trial.

Kılıçdaroğlu, the main opposition leader and dubbed the Gandhi of Turkish politics, and his allies keep making the heart-shape with their hands in every mass rally. It looks cheesy, but it means a lot. So many people are exhausted and see value in the simple gesture. “The destiny of the country and the party are one and the same,” Erdoğan has often said, casting half the nation as the enemy within. There’s a reason he’s scared: the opposition alliance has committed to reverse much of his legacy, principally proposing a shift back towards a parliamentary – rather than presidential – political system.

Still, the result is no foregone conclusion. Erdoğan’s propaganda machine is ruthless; the attack in Erzurum was quickly spun into a provocation against his party. After 20 years as Turkey’s most dominant politician, he can count on a wide range of support thanks to the web of political money that spans the country to feed his supporters, the fear of all things foreign that he inculcates in many Turkish people, and his mastery in exploiting religious sensitivities. Erdoğan’s cult of personality still mesmerises his base.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at an election rally in Ankara, Turkey on 11 May 2023. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

But he knows well that electoral loss could lead to him and his close circle ending up in court, both domestically and even internationally given Turkey’s alleged war crimes in Syria. He is a tiger caught by the tail; the stakes are incredibly high. That is why Kılıçdaroğlu has warned his supporters not to go on the street to celebrate on election night for their safety. Still, Kılıçdaroğlu insists: “We will not seek revenge, but we sure will punish the guilty.”

The problem is that, as in any autocratic regime, the actors who paved Erdoğan’s way to his sultanate are many. A moment of truth for Turkey approaches. The question is simple: not Erdoğan or opposition, but fear or hope?

By Ece Temelkuran is a Turkish journalist and political commentator, and author of How to Lose a Country: The 7 Steps from Democracy to Dictatorship – theguardian.com

L’article Turkey’s choice could not be starker: more cruelty under Erdoğan, or the return of justice and hope est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

More than 45,000 people have been killed in the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria, and the toll is expected to soar with some 264,000 apartments in Turkey destroyed and many still missing in the country’s worst modern disaster. 

Twelve days after the quake hit, three people, including a child, were rescued alive from the rubble of a building in Antakya city of southern Turkey on Saturday, state news agency Anadolu said.

A journalist for Turkish television channel NTV later reported that one of those found had died after being taken to hospital.

NTV broadcast images of rescuers placing the rescued people onto stretchers after they had spent 296 hours trapped in the rubble. 

The death toll in Turkey stands at 39,672, while neighbouring Syria has reported more than 5,800 deaths. Syria’s toll has not changed for days.

While many international rescue teams have left the vast quake zone, domestic teams continued to search through flattened buildings on Saturday hoping to find more survivors who defied the odds. Experts say most rescues occur in the 24 hours following an earthquake.

Hakan Yasinoglu, in his 40s, was rescued in the southern province of Hatay, 278 hours after the 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck in the dead of night on February 6, the Istanbul Fire Brigade said.

Earlier, Osman Halebiye, 14, and Mustafa Avci, 34, were saved in Turkey’s historic city of Antakya, known in ancient times as Antioch. As Avci was carried away, he was put on a video call with his parents, who showed him his newborn baby.

« I had completely lost all hope. This is a true miracle. They gave me my son back. I saw the wreckage and I thought nobody could be saved alive from there, » his father said.

Aid organisations say the survivors will need help for months to come with so much crucial infrastructure destroyed.

In neighbouring Syria, already shattered by more than a decade of civil war, the bulk of fatalities have been in the northwest, an area controlled by insurgents who are at war with President Bashar al-Assad – a conflict that has complicated efforts to aid people affected by the earthquake.

Thousands of Syrians who had sought refuge in Turkey from their country’s civil war have returned to their homes in the war zone, at least for now.

Anger grows 

Neither Turkey nor Syria have said how many people are still missing following the quake.

For families still waiting to retrieve relatives in Turkey, there is growing anger over what they see as corrupt building practices and deeply flawed urban development that resulted in the destruction of thousands of homes and businesses.

One such building was the Ronesans Rezidans (Renaissance Residence), which keeled over in Antakya, killing hundreds.

« It was said to be earthquake-safe, but you can see the result, » said Hamza Alpaslan, 47, whose brother had lived in the apartment block. « It’s in horrible condition. There is neither cement nor proper iron in it. It’s a real hell. »

Turkey has promised to investigate anyone suspected of responsibility for the collapse of buildings and has ordered the detention of more than 100 suspects, including developers.

The United Nations on Thursday appealed for more than $1 billion in funds for the Turkish relief operation, and has launched a $400 million appeal for Syrians.

World Opinions – FRANCE 24 – AFP and Reuters

L’article Turkey-Syria death toll tops 45,000; three found alive 13 days after quakes est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Specialist rescue teams from countries all over the world are flying out to Turkey to help find survivors in the rubble.

Many are sending specialist firefighters, medics, equipment and specially trained dogs.

Turkey says 2,316 people have been killed and 13,293 injured in Monday’s earthquakes.

Emergency services said 7,340 people have been rescued so far.

Syrians call for help as hospitals fill with earthquake survivors

Syrian doctors are calling for help as hospitals in the country fill up with hundreds of survivors of Monday’s earthquakes.

Mohammad Hamza, a co-ordinator for the aid agency Islamic Relief, was in the small town of Ad Dana in north-west Syria when the earthquake struck in Turkey this morning.

Hamza, a father of three, described the moment of panic when he felt the quake.

“I found my children were sleeping, I didn’t know what to do. Shall I wake them up or shall I leave them sleeping? » he told the BBC World Service’s Newshour programme.

“We are dying anyway! This is what I was thinking. Shall I let them be scared by the situation?

Is it going to be better under the bed? Actually, I didn’t know what to do. I just froze, I stopped, I couldn’t move. »

Mohammad HamzaCo-ordinator, Islamic Relief aid agency

Syrian death toll increases to 1,293

At least 1,293 people have been killed and 3,411 injured in Syria in Monday’s earthquakes, the government and rescue workers say.

In government-controlled areas, the toll rose to 593 dead and 1,411 injured in the provinces of Aleppo, Latakia, Hama and Tartus, Syria’s health ministry said.

In rebel-held parts of the country’s northwest, at least 700 people have been killed and more than 2,000 injured, according to the White Helmets rescue group.

US says it will not engage with Assad gov’t to deliver aid

The administration of US President Joe Biden has said it is “committed” to delivering aid to Syrians, but it ruled out reaching out to the government in Damascus, which it does not recognise as legitimate.

US State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters that Washington will not engage with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the aftermath of the deadly earthquakes that struck Syria and Turkey on Monday.

“It would be quite ironic – if not even counterproductive – for us to reach out to a government that has brutalised its people over the course of a dozen years now … Instead, we have humanitarian partners on the ground who can provide the type of assistance in the aftermath of these tragic earthquakes,” Price said.

World Opinions – Agencies

L’article Turkey-Syria quakes: Thousands dead; searches ongoing est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Turkish president says will pause talks, partly over dispute with Greek PM and what Ankara calls airspace violations.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey is halting talks with Greece, partly over a dispute with the Greek prime minister and what Ankara calls airspace violations, marking the latest reversal in the neighbours’ long-testy relationship.

Last year, after a five-year hiatus, the two NATO members resumed talks to address their differences in the Mediterranean Sea and other bilateral issues. The talks have made little progress and the countries have frequently traded barbs.

Erdogan said on Wednesday that Turkey had cancelled a bilateral cooperation platform, dubbed the High-Level Strategic Council, with Greece, adding in a speech to legislators from his governing party that Ankara wanted a foreign policy that “had strong character”.

“You keep putting on shows for us with your planes,” Erdogan said, referring to a dispute with Athens about airspace over islands in the Aegean Sea. “What are you doing? Pull yourself together. Do you not learn lessons from history?”

“Don’t try to dance with Turkey. You’ll get tired and stuck on the road. We are no longer holding bilateral talks with them. This Greece will not see reason,” he said.

The countries have long been at odds about a range of issues such as maritime boundaries, overlapping claims over their continental shelves, airspace, refugees and Cyprus.

The talks had made little headway, but were a means for the two countries to air out their grievances without resorting to a potential armed standoff as had occurred as recently as two years ago.

Tensions flared again last week when Erdogan said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis “no longer exists” for him, accusing him of trying to block sales of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey during a visit to the United States.

On Tuesday, Mitsotakis told reporters after a European Union summit that he had briefed his EU counterparts about Turkey’s “aggressiveness” and “provocations which cannot be tolerated by Greece or the European Union”.

“I will not be involved in a game of personal insults,” he said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Tuesday Greece was violating international agreements that determine the demilitarised status of islands in the Aegean, warning that if Athens did not change course Ankara would launch challenges over the islands’ status.

Greece’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Cavusoglu’s comments showed Turkey was threatening Athens.

WORLD OPINIONS + NEWS AGENCIES

L’article Erdogan halts Turkey-Greece talks as rift widens est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

It follows a statement from the envoys calling for the urgent release of activist Osman Kavala.

He has been in jail for more than four years over protests and a coup attempt, although he has not been convicted.

Persona non grata can remove diplomatic status and often results in expulsion or withdrawal of recognition of envoys.

This week’s statement on Mr Kavala jointly came from the embassies of the US, Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden. Seven are fellow Nato allies of Turkey.

The Council of Europe, Europe’s main human rights watchdog, has given Turkey a final warning to heed a European Court of Human Rights ruling to free Mr Kavala pending trial.

Addressing a crowd in Eskisehir on Saturday, Mr Erdogan said the ambassadors « cannot dare to come to the Turkish foreign ministry and give orders ».

He said: « I gave the necessary order to our foreign minister and said what must be done. These 10 ambassadors must be declared persona non grata at once. You will sort it out immediately. »

However, what will happen now remains unclear.

Mr Erdogan said the envoys should either understand Turkey or leave, Turkish media reported.

There has been little response from the ambassadors so far, although the German foreign ministry said the nations involved were in « intensive consultation ».

No official notification has been received from Turkish authorities.

The Norwegian foreign ministry told Reuters its envoy had « not done anything that warrants an expulsion ».

Turkey’s foreign ministry had summoned the ambassadors on Tuesday to protest at their « irresponsible » statement on the Kavala case.

The embassies’ statement had criticised the « continuing delays » in Osman Kavala’s trial, which « cast a shadow over respect for democracy, the rule of law and transparency in the Turkish judiciary system ».

It urges a speedy resolution and calls for « Turkey to secure his urgent release ».

Mr Kavala was last year acquitted of charges over nationwide protests in 2013, but almost immediately rearrested.

The acquittal was overturned and new charges were added relating to the military coup attempt against the Erdogan government in 2016.

Mr Kavala denies any wrongdoing and critics of the Erdogan government say his case is an example of a widespread crackdown on dissent.

Earlier this week, Mr Erdogan defended Turkey’s judicial system, saying: « I told our foreign minister: We can’t have the luxury of hosting this lot in our country. Is it for you to give Turkey such a lesson? Who do you think you are? ».

World Opinions News – BBC News

L’article Turkey moves to throw out US envoy and nine others est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

For Ankara, rapprochement with Cairo is a must. With former US President Donald Trump gone the tougher policy towards Turkey Joe Biden has adopted will force Recep Tayyip Erdogan to revive relations with old hostile countries.

The Turkish President has aimed to introduce warmth to the cold relations with the European Union and is attempting to open a new chapter with Egypt.

Relations in Cairo have deteriorated since the summer of 2013 after General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi ousted the Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. Egypt considered Ankara’s hosting of the Islamic Brotherhood leadership and providing it with a haven dangerous. Opening Egyptian opposition television networks deeply affected the bilateral relations too.

Turkey considered the Arab Spring that erupted in several Arab countries starting in Tunisia in 2010 as an opportunity for it to extend its influence to the region and the Eastern Mediterranean. It exploited the political vacuum and the turbulent transitional periods by supporting Arab Islamists, a move not welcomed by many Arabs and their leaders.

As Egypt’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began to improve several years ago, Turkey sided with Qatar and increased collaboration in several countries, such as Syria, Libya and Yemen.

With the GCC overcoming their differences by reinitiating its political and economic ties with Doha, it is in Ankara’s best interests to review its policies. It must reach out to the Gulf States by divorcing the boycott policy that had negative repercussions for bilateral relations with these countries. Turkey’s image across the Arab world was tarnished.

The rivalry between the two nations is not limited to ideological differences and bilateral relations. Despite several complexities, strategic considerations are essential.

The two nations have a long history and culture of being deeply influential in the region. Rivalry increases when there are opposing viewpoints about regional issues.

Libya is the most recent and prominent one. Libyan territories are in Egypt’s backyard and it will challenge any Turkish troop deployment there. With Turks on its doorstep, Cairo’s antagonism will grow.

Turkey and Egypt

A bilateral agreement between the two states will have a positive effect to create a peaceful settlement in Libya.

In addition to these complicated issues, Turkey felt isolated when Egypt led, along with others, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) which included: Cyprus, Israel, Greece, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Italy.

Demarcating maritime borders and allocating reserves of gas between these states is alarming for Ankara. This is a monetary fortune that Turkey will not surrender.

If it cannot reclaim its rights through a dispute, it could probably have a better chance through negotiation and rapprochement with Egypt, which is the major player in this.

Ironically, economic ties between the two countries remain active despite political tensions.

In 2018, they set a bilateral trade record with Turkish exports to Egypt amounting to $3.05 billion, an increase of 29.4 percent compared to 2017. Egyptian exports to Turkey reached $2.19 billion increasing 9.68 percent in 2017.

The free trade agreement between the two countries that was signed in 2005 remained functional despite all the differences. It is imaginable that such economic cooperation could reach new heights if relations are normalized.

In a positive gesture, Ankara has proposed to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia about the Renaissance Dam which, in the last few months, has become a major source of tension between the two.

The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “Turkey and Egypt share deep-rooted economic and social ties based on mutual historical heritage. Egypt is our major commercial partner in the African continent. Turkish and Egyptian businesspersons maintain close contact and continue to realize reciprocal visits.”

A deep revision of Turkish foreign policy is underway on all fronts with the aim of reducing antagonism with international and regional players. Strategies for consideration include: reviving relations with Egypt; opening ties with Greece; seeking reconciliation with the GCC countries; and, most importantly, pursuing a new policy with Washington.

Returning to the old zero-problem policy with the surrounding states is no longer feasible for Turkey. Gradually decreasing tensions in the region will prove beneficial for Ankara and address existing rivalries simultaneously.

Improving relations with Egypt will act as a catalyst to build bonds with other countries it is estranged from.

By Rami Rayess – alarabiya.net

L’article Turkey needs friends with Egypt top of its list est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.