PM Bayrou lost the vote, but a deadlock in Parliament means France might struggle to find a replacement who can pass a budget aimed at cutting the deficit.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou has lost a confidence vote of MPs, ending his nine months in office during a period of chaos in the country’s parliament, the National Assembly.

Bayrou, 74, was the fourth prime minister in two years under President Emmanuel Macron, whose second term is office has been overshadowed by political instability.

The outgoing PM’s minority government called for €44bn (£38bn) of budget cuts to tackle France’s mounting public debt. It has now effectively collapsed.

The BBC looks at what led to his removal by MPsand what could happen next.

Ahead of the no-confidence vote, Bayrou spoke on Monday afternoon in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament, where he told lawmakers that the economy faced serious risks because of its deep indebtedness. He then fielded questions from parliamentarians, before the vote took place.

Here’s what you need to know:

What could happen next?

For several weeks, lawmakers had made it clear they would vote against Bayrou’s state-slashing budget. Opposition parties from the far left to the far right hold 330 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly – so Monday’s ouster was widely expected.

After Monday’s vote, Bayrou’s government has collapsed. However, he will stay in office until President Emmanuel Macron decides what to do next. Unfortunately for the president, France lacks a consensus figure to replace Bayrou.

Macron is faced with uniquely hard choices – appoint another prime minister in the hope that he or she can pass an unpopular budget, call new elections to try to re-establish a parliamentary majority, or stand down himself, something he has refused to do before his term ends in 2027.

With the arithmetic in Parliament unchanged, picking a new premier risks simply repeating the events from last year when Bayrou succeeded Michel Barnier.

A fiscal conservative, Macron is unlikely to appoint a premier who advocates for higher state spending. But after the government recently tried to cut deals on the right of the political spectrum, some wonder if Macron might try something new.

According to Stefano Palombarini, assistant professor of economics at the University of Paris VIII, “the two previous appointments, Barnier and Bayrou, both failed. He [Macron] lost a lot of credibility in that process, and if he tries a similarly centrist approach, he’d lose even more.”

Palombarini told Al Jazeera that “in this context, it would make the scenario of a relative opening towards the left possible. Some Macronist, Socialist and Green politicians say they’re ready for compromises to form a government that lasts until 2027.”

Does this mean there is a clear political path?

Not really.

According to an opinion poll this month for Le Figaro Magazine by the Verian Group, just 15 percent of the electorate has confidence in Macron, down 6 percentage points since July. However, the president has consistently ruled out resigning from office.

Separate surveys by Ifop, Elabe and Toluna Harris Interactive indicated that 56 to 69 percent of French people want snap parliamentary elections, indicating growing dissatisfaction with current party politics in a country run by minority cabinets since 2022.

For Palombarini, “there’s general political malaise [in France] and also dissatisfaction specifically with Macron. So overall, opinion polls are actually quite stable.” Indeed, the latest polls show no material change in voting intentions over the past year.

This means there is no certainty that a new prime minister would be safe from a similar fate as Bayrou.

What are the origins of this crisis?

At the heart of France’s political paralysis is Macron’s risky decision to call snap parliamentary elections last year. That came after he was re-elected in 2022.

Macron’s gamble in June 2024 was an effort to shore up support for the political centre. But French voters edged towards the extremes, leaving Macron with a weakened minority government and limiting his ability to pass legislation.

The vote resulted in a hung Parliament split between three groups. A left alliance won the most seats, but fell far short of a majority. The far-right National Rally won the most votes, but also doesn’t have a majority. Macron’s centrist coalition lost seats, but still forms a significant third bloc.

This parliamentary shake-up has made France hard to govern. Divisions have shown up most clearly around spending.

How does the budget fit into it?

The immediate reason for Bayrou’s fall is his budget proposal for next year. His unpopular 44-billion-euro ($51bn) deficit-reduction plan, including freezing most welfare spending and scrapping two public holidays, has been widely rejected by parliamentarians.

On August 25, Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally, said his party would “never vote in favour of a government whose decisions are making the French suffer”. Bayrou in effect has announced “the end of his government”, Bardella said.

The French budget deficit is now nearly 169 billion euros ($198bn), or 5.8 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), well above the 3 percent limit set by the European Union for countries using the euro.

Bayrou is trying to lower the government’s borrowing to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and to 2.8 percent by 2029. In turn, that would lower the overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 117.2 percent in 2029, compared with 125.3 percent if no changes are made.

Bayrou recently said young people will be saddled with years of debt payments “for the sake of the comfort of boomers” if France fails to tackle its fiscal pressures. Born in 1951, Bayrou himself qualifies as a baby boomer, the generation born in the years soon after World War II.

But any attempt to curtail social benefits is politically difficult in France, as made clear by conflicts in 2023 over Macron’s decision to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62.

Still, investors worry that France’s persistent deficits will cause ever higher debt ratios and undermine its credit score.

Is more gridlock expected?

A series of street demonstrations known as “Block Everything” is expected this week, followed by union-led hospital and rail strikes in the second half of September.

In 2018 and 2023, France witnessed what became known as the “gilets jaunes”, or yellow vest. anti-government protests against various domestic policies overseen by Macron, who will want to avoid a repeat this time, analysts said.

“Macron’s policies since 2017 have been very unpopular. If there were legislative elections tomorrow, a Macronist government would not get elected,” Palombarini said.

But with the president rejecting the idea that he might resign early, “he is likely to continue to enjoy power of the office for a few more years”, Palombarini added.

Beyond that there are also voices – from the far left this time – calling for Macron’s resignation. That is most unlikely to happen.

Who could replace Bayrou?

Pressure will be on Macron to name a successor from the left. The last two prime ministers were from the right and centre, and a left alliance came out numerically top in the 2024 election.

Olivier Faure, the leader of the Socialist Party, would be one possibility. The 57-year-old has a group of 66 deputies in the National Assembly.

Two other possibilities from the left are former PM Bernard Cazeneuve, and the veteran ex-minister Pierre Moscovici, currently head of the Cour des Comptes, the official accounting office.

If Macron decides to stick with the centre and right, his first choice would probably be Sebastien Lecornu, 39, the current defence minister who is a member of Macron’s Renaissance party and said to be close to the president.

Another conservative whose name has been mentioned is the current minister of labour and health, Catherine Vautrin.

Two other possibilities from inside government are Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who now leads the Republicans, and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin.

But with all eyes on the 2027 presidential election, would these heavyweights want the electoral kiss-of-death which is to be Macron’s next PM?

World Opinions – BBC News – Aljazeera

L’article Why has the French PM had to go and what happens next? est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

As they mark six years of exodus in Bangladesh, young refugees demand the tools that would allow them to take charge of their lives and futures.

Six years have now elapsed since the world watched 700,000 Rohingya flee from Myanmar to Bangladesh in search of safety. About half of them were children and young people. What was expected to be a short-term refuge has become another protracted crisis. Those who fled as children have now reached the age of adolescence; those who were teenagers are now adults.

Like most children, they aspire to become doctors, engineers, teachers, sports stars, and artists – a stark contrast to their reality. Living in the world’s biggest refugee camp, surrounded by barbed-wire fences, Rohingya refugees are blocked from accessing formal education, earning an income, and moving freely through or beyond the camp.

In such conditions, what hope they can have to build the kind of future they dream of? There should be scope for them to improve their lives, be it through education or paid work.

Many of the young Rohingya I have met as part of my work at these camps tell me they feel forgotten by the world. They tell me the barriers between them and the life they want for themselves engulf them with a sense of despair. They say their voices go unheard and that they have lost the right to dream. This sense of helplessness has a visceral impact on their mental health.

A 2022 survey of 317 refugee youth and adolescents across 11 camps conducted by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) found that 96 percent of the respondents were unemployed and that they constantly feel anxious and stressed.

Amin is a young Rohingya I know well. Six years ago, he was a high-school student in his home country. He planned to go to university and become a lawyer. Then one day, his village was burned down, and his relatives were killed before his eyes. Scared for their lives, he and his family walked for 10 days before crossing the border to reach safety in Bangladesh.

Like many others, Amin assumed he would only be in Bangladesh for a short time. But the vastly different reality has struck him hard. Now, with every passing year, little by little, his aspiration to become a lawyer is drifting away and he feels ever more helpless. He does not even know if he will ever be able to resume his education.

Life for girls and young Rohingya women is even more challenging. They spend most of their time within the four walls of congested bamboo homes. Learning centres, providing limited non-formal education, work as a safe space for women and girls. There they can learn to read and build friendships and bonds with other young people. However, many girls are not allowed by their families to attend. Instead, it’s very common for girls to get married before they turn 18 due to social pressure and safety concerns.

Fifteen-year-old Ayesha told me she misses her life before she fled. Back then, she had the freedom to spend time with her friends in the garden outside their home. Now she says her home is too crowded and she barely has any privacy. She has to spend the entire day at home. It feels like a prison to her.

Sadly, there are thousands of stories like those of Amin and Ayesha. At the age of energy and enthusiasm, young Rohingya spend their days by roadside shops or inside their shelters. With nowhere to channel their energy, they are growing weary and restless.

The recent cuts that reduced food rations to just 27 cents a day have become a bitter cherry on top of their situation. The community, especially the young generation, is even more desperate for employment than before.

“How long are we going to be aid-dependent like this?” one young refugee asked me. “We do not enjoy being totally aid dependent. This is our age of working and earning. This latest ration cut is an indication that it is high time we start earning our own money.”

It is critical that donors and decision-makers listen to these young people. They have the right to determine their own future, and to influence how aid dollars are invested in programmes to support them.

A recent assessment conducted by NRC found that Rohingya youth and adolescents are eager to receive vocational training and build technical knowledge, which will help them earn money to support themselves and their families. Some of this training is available, but much more must be provided, and existing initiatives expanded.

For example, some Rohingya youth are being trained on how to repair solar panels while others are trained in tailoring. Alongside this training, the youth now need opportunities to use their newfound skills to earn a living for themselves. And to do that donors, governments and private institutions must put their hands in their pockets and invest further in these initiatives.

Given the opportunity, these young people will be a huge asset to their community and Bangladesh. But the government and donor community must work to provide the tools. Only that way, can young Rohingya have a real chance to take charge of their own futures.

By Sadia Rahman Communications Officer for the Norwegian Refugee Council in Bangladesh/ ALjazeera

L’article Analysis. Rohingya youth long for a future beyond the barbed wire est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Food aid to Ethiopia has been suspended after the discovery that humanitarian supplies meant for people in need were being stolen.

The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) said on Friday that it is halting food assistance while it rolled out “enhanced safeguards and controls that will ensure humanitarian food assistance reaches targeted, vulnerable people”. It comes a day after the US Agency for International Development (USAid) said it was doing the same, after a “countrywide review” uncovered “a widespread and coordinated campaign” that was diverting food assistance from Ethiopian people.

“We made the difficult but necessary decision that we cannot move forward with distribution of food assistance until reforms are in place,” said a USAid spokesperson.

More than 20 million people across Ethiopia rely on humanitarian help as civil conflict and the worst drought in four decades grips the country. The US is the largest single donor to the country, supplying aid worth $1.8bn (£1.4bn) in the past fiscal year.

UN and US halt food assistance in the country, where 20 million people rely on aid, in order to investigate ‘diversion’ of supplies

The USAid and the WFP had already suspended food supplies to the northern Tigray region while they investigated reports of stolen aid there. Tigray was the centre of a civil war that ended in November and nearly all of its 6 million people rely on aid.

The humanitarian agencies have not apportioned blame for thefts. However, an internal memo by a group of foreign donors says that Ethiopian government officials are involved.

“Extensive monitoring indicates this diversion of donor-funded food assistance is a coordinated and criminal scheme, which has prevented life-saving food assistance from reaching the most vulnerable,” the document says. “The scheme appears to be orchestrated by federal and regional government of Ethiopia entities, with military units across the country benefiting from humanitarian assistance.”

The document says USAid investigators visited “63 flour mills in seven of Ethiopia’s nine regions” since March where they “witnessed significant diversion” of supplies donated by the US, France, Japan and Ukraine.

Another document posted on USAid’s website in May, and later taken down, detailed instances of US-supplied grain being sold in markets throughout Tigray in March and April. This included enough wheat to feed 134,000 people for a month on sale “in a local grain market and being processed into flour at mills owned by local wholesalers” in the city of Shire, which hosts large numbers of people displaced by the war.

A US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Ethiopia’s federal government was using some of the stolen aid to feed Tigrayan fighters demobilised as part of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, two humanitarian workers, who also requested anonymity, said rebel Tigray authorities had regularly taken a proportion of beneficiaries’ aid rations at flour mills during the war as a “tax”.

Ethiopia has vowed to hold an investigation “so the perpetrators of such diversion are held to account”.

The WFP has said its Ethiopia country director, Claude Jibidar, is on leave, amid speculation that he had resigned. In a text message to the Guardian, Jibidar would not confirm if he was returning to his post.

Ethiopia experienced devastating famines and conflicts in the 1970s and 1980s. Aid agencies have long struggled to keep their food donations out of combatants’ hands. During the recent conflict, the government faced UN accusations that it restricted the flow of aid to Tigray and used “starvation as a method of warfare”, while the government accused humanitarian agencies of running arms to the Tigray rebels.

World Opinions + theguardian.com

L’article Food aid suspended in Ethiopia after ‘widespread and coordinated’ thievery est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Fighting has intensified in Khartoum as well as Darfur, despite US sanctions that were imposed due to the collapse of ceasefire talks.

The Sudanese army has called in reinforcements to aid in its fight with its rival, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), sparking fear among residents in the capital of Khartoum that the conflict will intensify.

Residents in the southern part of the capital reported seeing the reinforcement troops, alongside a heightened military presence of the RSF, Al Jazeera’s Hiba Morgan said on Saturday from Omdurman, a city adjoining Khartoum.

The Sudanese army has been trying to take control of a military base there that belongs to the RSF for the past two days. Residents have been warned to stay as far away as possible from the base, Morgan said.

Fighting has also continued to rage elsewhere in the state of Khartoum as well as Darfur, intensifying despite United States sanctions imposed after the collapse of a US and Saudi-brokered ceasefire late on Thursday.

“Fighter jets are flying overhead in the city of Omdurman. And there’s been air strikes launched by the army on RSF positions in the northern parts of the capital,” Morgan said.

“There have also been sounds of artillery reported in the centre of the capital.”

Journalist Matt Nashed, speaking from neighbouring Egypt, said the army seems to be attempting to launch a much larger offensive in the capital.

“They want to try to recapture some territory it does not control … in Khartoum and the point for this really, is to save face and build some leverage before entering negotiations with the Rapid Support Forces,” he said.

“The second reason would be related to trying to maintain its minimal symbolic support that it still has from constituents within Khartoum,” Nashed added.

A day earlier, shelling rocked greater Khartoum with witnesses reporting “artillery fire” in the eastern part of the state and around the state television building in Omdurman.

On Wednesday, the country experienced the most deadly single attack since the conflict began with at least 18 people killed and a further 106 wounded, Morgan reported, adding that artillery shelling hit a market in Khartoum resulting in civilian deaths.

The persistent fighting, spanning more than seven weeks since the conflict between the duelling generals of the army and the RSF broke out on April 15, has forced volunteers to bury 180 bodies recovered from combat zones without identification, the Sudanese Red Crescent said on Friday.

The ceasefire talks were meant to allow humanitarian actors to operate safely. But the Red Crescent volunteers have found it difficult to move through the streets to pick up the dead due to security constraints.

Additionally, aid groups face other troubles, with the World Food Programme (WFP) reporting this week that nearly 17,000 tons (15,400 tonnes) of food aid have been looted since the start of the conflict.

“The aid that was looted in El Obeid was destined for more than four million people in the western region of Darfur,” Morgan said, referring to one of the WFP’s largest logistics bases in Africa located in North Kordofan state.

“Some of those who we spoke to say that they’re concerned not of being hit by an artillery or an air strike, but that because of the humanitarian situation, they may die of hunger,” she added, referring to the humanitarian crisis.

More than 1,800 people have been killed, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, and at least 1.6 million displaced within the country or across its borders, the United Nations has said, with many fleeing to Egypt, Chad and South Sudan.

World Opinions + Agencies

L’article Sudan army brings in reinforcements as it battles RSF in Khartoum est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Syria is back in the influential Arab League, more than a decade after being thrown out for its brutal repression of pro-democracy protests, which led to the ongoing civil war.

The move is further evidence of a thaw in relations between Damascus and other Arab governments.

Syria’s readmittance was approved at a meeting of League members in Egypt.

It comes ahead of a summit in Saudi Arabia later this month that President Bashar al-Assad may now attend.

In a statement, Syria’s foreign ministry said it had received the League’s decision « with great attention » and called for « greater Arab cooperation and partnership ».

Foreign ministers from 13 of the 22-nation group’s members were present when the decision to readmit Syria was taken.

They stressed the need to end Syria’s civil war and the resulting refugee and drug smuggling crises. Growing poverty and lack of job opportunities saw many turn to the drug trade, the BBC reported last year.

A committee involving Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq will be set up to help Syria achieve those goals.

The Arab League’s secretary general, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said the move was the start of a process to resolve the crisis in Syria, which would be « gradual ».

He stressed the decision did not mean a resumption of relationships between Arab states and Syria as it was up to each country to decide this individually.

More than 300,000 civilians are thought to have been killed and more than 100,000 detained or disappeared during the civil war, according to UN estimates.

Roughly half of the pre-war population of 21 million has been displaced, either within Syria or as refugees abroad.

Mr Assad began to regain control over the country in 2015, with the help of Russia – forcing its neighbours to think of a future with Mr Assad in place.

Arab moves to restore ties accelerated after the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria in February.

Earlier this week, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Mr Assad – with some analysts suggesting the visit put extra pressure on Arab nations to bring Syria back into the fold.

It follows visits by foreign ministers from Egypt and Saudi Arabia and the restoration of full diplomatic relations with Tunisia.

Syria’s foreign minister has also recently visited several Arab countries as part of a diplomatic push.

The US and UK are among the Western countries that have recently stated they will not restore relations with President Assad’s government.

World Opinions + BBC News

L’article Arab League: Syria reinstated as Assad rehabilitation continues est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Riyadh: The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Gulf Cooperation Council and a number of countries praised Saudi Arabia for the Kingdom’s role in evacuating foreign nationals from Sudan.

Secretary-General of the OIC Hissein Brahim Taha praised the efforts made by Saudi Arabia to evacuate nationals of OIC member states, non-member states, as well as diplomats and workers from Sudan, stressing that the Kingdom’s initiative came at the right time.

He extended his thanks to King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the evacuation.

Taha renewed his appeal for a cease-fire in Sudan and dialogue to preserve the security and safety of the Sudanese people and state.

GCC Secretary-General Jassem Mohamed Albudaiwi praised the diplomatic and logistical role played by the Kingdom.

He expressed thanks and appreciation to the Saudi leadership, underlining his gratitude for their instructions and direct follow-up on the evacuation process, which went smoothly for the evacuees who safely arrived in Jeddah and had all their needs met ahead of leaving for their home countries.

Albudaiwi also expressed appreciation for the great diplomatic efforts made by the Kingdom and GCC members in resolving the Sudanese crisis by opening channels of communication with the conflicting parties to reach a comprehensive and peaceful solution.

The GCC secretary-general reiterated the call for the conflicting parties in Sudan to stop military operations at the earliest opportunity, exercise maximum restraint, avoid escalation, prioritise the interests of the Sudanese people, and ensure their security and stability.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said in a letter to Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan: “I am immensely pleased to convey our sincere thanks and profound gratitude for the kind gesture by the Royal Saudi Naval Forces in evacuating 66 foreign nationals including three Bangladeshis on April 22.”

He continued in the letter, a copy of which was provided to Arab News by the Bangladesh Embassy: “We deeply appreciate the great efforts undertaken by Saudi Arabia in rescuing these people from Sudan to Jeddah port.”

The UAE’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan also thanked his Saudi counterpart on Monday for the Kingdom’s role in evacuating Emirati nationals from Sudan, WAM, the official news agency, reported.

He thanked Prince Faisal for “helping to evacuate the UAE’s citizens from Sudan and praised the outstanding efforts made by Riyadh in carrying out evacuations in cooperation with various countries.”

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has resulted in ferocious battles that have caused the deaths of hundreds of people.

Several foreign countries have conducted evacuation operations to rescue their citizens and embassy staff.      

Saudi Arabia led the first successful evacuation operation with the Royal Saudi Naval Forces evacuating people, including foreign nationals, diplomats and officials from Port Sudan on Saturday.

The Kingdom has confirmed the safe arrival of 91 Saudi citizens and around 66 nationals from 12 other countries, including Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, Tunisia, Pakistan, India, Bulgaria, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Canada, and Burkina Faso.

Moreover, a Saudi ship transporting 199 evacuees of different nationalities from Sudan arrived at the King Faisal Naval Base in Jeddah on Monday.

Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib thanked Saudi Arabia’s leadership for evacuating Lebanese citizens from Sudan and for receiving them as guests in Jeddah ahead of their return to their homeland.

World Bank Group President David Malpass also expressed thanks and appreciation to King Salman for the Kingdom’s contribution and support in evacuating the World Bank staff from Sudan to Saudi Arabia.

‎In a letter sent to the king, the World Bank Group president said: “We express our gratitude and appreciation for the generous support provided by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to our staff in Sudan. Saudi Arabia’s swift action and unwavering support have been truly remarkable.”

He also expressed appreciation for the Kingdom’s embassy and its staff in Khartoum for caring for the World Bank staff and their dependents, which, he said, is greatly appreciated in this time of great need.

World Opinions – Arab News

L’article Saudi Arabia’s efforts in evacuating citizens, foreign nationals from Sudan praised est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Fierce fighting erupts in the capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere in Sudan, dealing a new blow to hopes for the country’s transition to democracy.

Sudan’s military and a powerful paramilitary force have engaged in fierce fighting in the capital and elsewhere in country, dealing a new blow to hopes for a transition to democracy and raising fears of a wider conflict.

At least 25 people were killed and 183 others were injured in clashes across the country on Saturday, the Sudanese Doctors’ Union told the Reuters news agency. The group was unable to determine if all the casualities were civilians.

The clashes capped months of heightened tensions between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. Those tensions had delayed a deal with political parties to get the country back to its short-lived transition to democracy, which was derailed by an October 2021 military coup.

After a day of heavy fighting, the military ruled out negotiations with the RSF, instead calling for the dismantling of what it called a “rebellious militia”.

The sound of heavy firing could be heard throughout Saturday across the capital, Khartoum, and nearby city Omdurman, where the military and the RSF have amassed tens of thousands of troops since the coup.

Witnesses said fighters from both sides fired from armoured vehicles and from machine guns mounted on pick-up trucks in fighting in densely populated areas. Some tanks were seen in Khartoum. The military said it launched attacks from planes and drones at RSF positions in and around the capital.

Residents described chaotic scenes. “Fire and explosions are everywhere,” said Amal Mohamed, a doctor in a public hospital in Omdurman. “All are running and seeking shelter.”

“We haven’t seen such battles in Khartoum before,” said Khartoum resident Abdel-Hamid Mustafa.

Clashes intensify for control of airports

One of the flashpoints was Khartoum International Airport. There was no formal announcement that the airport was closed, but major airlines suspended their flights.

This included Sudan-bound flights from Egypt and Saudi Arabia which turned back after nearly landing at the airport, flight tracking data showed..

World Opinions – Agencies

L’article Army and rival forces clash as power struggle rocks Sudan.. Video est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Amid protests and increasing international pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday agreed to suspend his proposed judicial overhaul. While in a televised speech he said he had decided to delay the vote “in order to give time for discussion,” in reality all he is doing is he is buying time to try and figure out how to solve the dilemma he is facing.

At this point in his career, in his sixth term in power, Netanyahu has one main target: staying out of jail. As a seasoned politician, he is driven by a sense of survival. He is facing accusations of fraud, breach of trust and bribery, which he denies. He needs to stay in power to stay out of jail. However, to do that, he needs to please the band of extremists in his government. And pleasing them means upsetting the street and Israel’s allies.

Before Netanyahu paused his reforms, the Histadrut labor federation — the General Organization of Workers in Israel — announced a general strike. The prime minister could not handle the general discontent or the international indignation. On the other hand, he cannot afford to lose any of his extremist partners. Hence, the best way to solve this dilemma was to postpone taking a decision.

Netanyahu is the king of deal-making. He is pragmatic and he does what it takes to get what he wants. Being pragmatic does not necessarily mean he is rational. Buying time will not change the choices he will face at some point in time. What he is banking on is making interim deals that can somehow become permanent. Netanyahu is very skilled at making distinctions between those whose acquiescence he requires and those he can simply discount.

Yoav Gallant, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party who reached the rank of major general in the Israel Defense Forces before entering politics, was fired by Netanyahu for objecting to the judicial reform. On the other hand, he had to humor Itamar Ben-Gvir, who is an integral part of his coalition. In return for supporting the delay, Ben-Gvir will be allowed to head his own armed militia outside of the jurisdiction of the Israeli army and police. This militia will not have to abide by the normal rules of engagement.

The Israeli prime minister’s plan seems to be to hang on to power as long as he can and delay the inevitable

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Are we now back to the times of the Haganah and its offshoot, the Irgun? Probably. How will world opinion perceive such terrorism? Today is different from the early 20th century. Transgressions can easily be documented using a smartphone and spread all over the world. Will the world accept a new Haganah? Will the world’s Jewry identify with it? Probably not, and most likely they will be disgusted by it.

Where do the Palestinians stand in all this? They will be evicted from their homes, persecuted and even killed, and there will be no functioning justice system to defend them. Though the judicial system has always been biased against them, it was always there as a platform through which they could air their grievances. They do not even have the right to exist as a people, according to far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a main pillar of Netanyahu’s coalition. The Palestinians have no choice but to resist. A third intifada? Probably.

A rational actor would have thought through all these outcomes, but Netanyahu does not seem to be one of them.

How will the US look at Israel once it legitimizes Ben-Gvir’s illegitimate paramilitary force? How will Israel be different from some rogue country in South America? Can the US, which praises Israel for being an oasis of democracy in a desert of dictatorships, still stand by its ally? Will the US stand by an Israel where the rule of law is subjugated by the will of those in power and where the aim of the entire system is to preserve itself rather than serve the people.

However, Netanyahu is not thinking as a statesman, he is thinking as a politician. Tactical gains are what matter to him. What he can get now is what is most important. And his current most important goal is to stay out of prison. He is dividing the country, he is empowering the fanatics, he is driving away the Jewry worldwide and slowly losing the country’s allies. Nevertheless, this does not seem to matter. Netanyahu’s plan seems to be to hang on to power as long as he can and delay the inevitable. While hanging on to power, he tries to make deals and put on a balancing act to eliminate the negative externalities that might result from those deals.

He postponed the judicial overhaul to calm the raging streets and appease international allies. In parallel, to get the acquiescence of Ben-Gvir, he allowed him to have his militia that will go on a killing spree. Again, he can always use terror accusations against the Palestinians and a public relations campaign to attenuate the gravity of the crimes committed. This is the art of transactional politics aimed at keeping one’s position and gaining time.

However, Netanyahu does not seem to realize that this is not sustainable and it will blow up in his face at some point. When this tactic no longer works, what can he do? Provoke a fight with Lebanon or Iran, similar to what Ehud Olmert did in 2006 to divert public attention away from corruption accusations? Maybe, but this option involves too many risks and did not work well for Olmert. In fact, Olmert had to resign after his adventure in Lebanon as his popularity tanked. He eventually ended up in jail in February 2016.

In short, Netanyahu is buying time using these tactics of self-preservation. However, at some point, this will no longer work and he will be forced to face a tough reality, in which he will be held accountable.

By Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

L’article Israel protests: Benjamin Netanyahu will have to face reality eventually est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s move to force through his deeply unpopular pension reform, without a vote in parliament, could rekindle social unrest reminiscent of the Yellow Vest movement, union leaders and analysts have warned as protests continue to sweep the country.

Demonstrations against the government’s use of a special constitutional provision, known as article 49.3, to sweep aside parliamentary opposition to the reform have been angrier than anything seen over the past two months.

Unions, united in coordinating their protests, called for a ninth strike day next Thursday, but many expressed fears they could lose control of the protests as more radical demonstrators set the tone.

« Yes, we are worried, » Cyril Chabanier, the head of the moderate CFTC union, told AFP.

Commentators have begun to wonder whether the hardening of fronts could herald the return of the Yellow Vests, a grassroots movement that started in 2018 as a protest against rising fuel prices and snowballed into the biggest social action against Macron in his first term.

« It’s a social law of physics, » said Jean-Marie Pernot, a political scientist specialising in trade unions.

« If you don’t respect any of the channels meant for the expression of dissent, it will find a way to express itself directly, » he told AFP.

Early Yellow Vest action was marked by strikes, weekly demonstrations, the blocking of roads and fuel depots, and the worst clashes with riot police in decades.

It was only with the imposition of restrictions on movement brought about by the Covid crisis that the movement’s actions were brought to a halt.

‘Tougher action ahead’

« There may be tougher action ahead, more serious and further-reaching, » warned Fabrice Coudour, a leading energy sector representative for the hard-left CGT Union.

« It may well escape our collective decision-making, » he said.

The Yellow Vests prided themselves on having no designated leaders. They resisted attempts by left-wing politicians and unions to harness the movement’s energy for their own ends.

One of their more prominent spokesmen was Jerome Rodrigues, who lost an eye to a police rubber bullet during clashes at one demo.

Within hours of Macron’s pensions move on Thursday, Rodrigues told an angry, cheering crowd outside the National Assembly that the objective was now nothing less than « the defeat » of the president.

At the same time, protests erupted in many parts of France, some demonstrators destroying street furniture, smashing windows and setting bins on fire.

In the central French city of Dijon, protesters burned effigies of Macron.

The CGT announced that it would force the shutdown of energy giant TotalEnergies’ refinery in Normandy in France’s northwest as of this weekend.

Picket lines at power utility Electricite de France would also be extended, the CGT said. And early on Friday, CGT activists blocked Paris’s busy ringroad, the Boulevard Périphérique.

‘Government’s fault’

The unions have already put the responsibility for any future trouble at the government’s doorstep.

« Obviously, when there is this much anger and so many French people on the streets, the more radical elements take the floor, » said Laurent Escure, boss of the UNSA trade union federation. 

« This is not what we want, but it’s going to happen. And it will be entirely the government’s fault, » he told AFP.

For weeks, Laurent Berger, head of the moderate CFDT union, has been warning the government that there could be more trouble if protesters got the idea that the Yellow Vests achieved more with violence than established unions with their peaceful, mass demonstrations.

« What is the democratic outlook for a country that fails to respond to 1.5 or 2 million people in the streets on three occasions, but that did respond to a violent movement with a fifth of that number in the street? » he asked in an interview last month.

Macron made a number of concessions to the Yellow Vest movement.

Among other measures, he scrapped a planned carbon tax and boosted salaries for minimum wage earners, for a total estimated cost to public finances of 10 billion euros ($10.7 billion).

World Opinions – FRANCE 24 – AFP

L’article French unions see threat of Yellow Vest rerun over Macron’s retirement push.. Video est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Banks are a special type of organisation. They take deposits and lend these funds to borrowers over long periods. It is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Banks make loans over many years, but you and I can withdraw the savings that banks use to fund the loans instantly.

For banks to operate this franchise model profitably, they essentially rely on two ingredients. First, they need to earn a profit by charging higher interest on long-term loans than they pay on short-term deposits. This model has come under severe strain in recent years. Owing to high inflation now and lower expected inflation in the next few years, many banks currently pay more for deposits and other funds than they earn on long-term loans and other assets. This makes the traditional banking model loss-making and raises questions about what the assets of some banks are worth if they had to be sold now.

Second, trust in the viability of a bank is vital. Banks are inherently unstable due to the mismatch in the duration of loans and deposits. They cannot liquidate their long-term assets quickly enough when many depositors withdraw at once. Even safe banks, with ample liquidity and capital, risk collapse when trust evaporates and depositors withdraw en masse.

It is important to remember that Credit Suisse is subject to more stringent regulations and oversight than other banks. Silicon Valley Bank was compliant with liquidity and capital regulations. In fact, SVB was well capitalised compared with many of its peers. However, when trust in the solvency of a bank goes, its franchise may crumble quickly, and depositors at other banks start worrying about the safety of their deposits.

This is by no means a repeat of the 2008 crisis. Regulations ensured banks, particularly the largest ones, have more capital and therefore greater ability to absorb losses than they did in 2008. Banks have also been stress-tested to withstand quite significant losses in the value of their loan portfolio.

In the US, Biden has assured voters that no taxpayer money would go to at-risk banks, but trust in the system relies on such support

Fortunately, regulators can address trust issues by providing large, potentially limitless, liquidity to solvent banks that have suffered from an erosion of trust. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve and other US regulators did just that when they acted decisively in providing a large amount of liquidity to US banks.

However, I was less encouraged by the authorities’ insistence that this was not a bailout and that no taxpayers’ money was used. In situations where trust in banking comes under strain, bailouts are needed to prevent much worse and, if designed well, taxpayer money need not be at stake.

Recent events starkly contrast statements made by Mario Draghi about 10 years ago when he was head of the European Central Bank. During the euro crisis, which many feared might cause a breakup of the euro with catastrophic effects on the global financial system, Draghi declared that the central bank “is ready to do whatever it takes” and added “believe me, it will be enough”. His comments are widely credited with having ended the immediate financial crisis.

As this current crisis rattles on, a statement by global regulators that they are ready to do likewise to stem instability would be very welcome. While this will not be the last banking crisis and lessons must be learned, history also tells us that “whatever it takes” will restore trust and stability.

By Jens Hagendorff is professor of finance at King’s College London – Theguardian.com

L’article Analysis. Unlike 2008, Credit Suisse and SBV haven’t been saved by governments. But let’s not make ‘bailout’ a dirty word est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.