Pakistan’s powerful army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has held “highly productive talks” with the Iranian leadership in Tehran, resulting in “encouraging progress towards a final understanding” between the United States and Iran, according to the Pakistani army.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said “some progress” had been made through the Pakistani mediation, adding that “there is ⁠a chance that, whether it’s ⁠later today, ⁠tomorrow, in a couple days, we may have something to ‌say”.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says that Iran “decided to focus the negotiations on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon”, refusing to discuss its nuclear programme.

Israel continues to launch air strikes on southern Lebanon after killing at least 3,123 people since March 2, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

Setareh Sadeqi, assistant professor at the University of Tehran, spoke to Al Jazeera about the seemingly encouraging signs emerging from Pakistan towards a final understanding between Iran and the United States.

“I think there is a clear message that there is a regional desire to come to an agreement and make it happen between the United States and Iran,” said Sadeqi.

But she cautioned the messaging from all sides remains “very contradictory”.

“We’re seeing both parties talking about being very close, but at the same time being far and that the military option is on the table and it could happen within even hours, if not days,” she added.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump said he was close to restarting the war before Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE urged him not to and to continue negotiations.

“The Pakistani officials are also saying that there are still points that need to be settled, and that means that it has actually not been finalised,” added Sadeqi.

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Hate speech against religious minorities in India rose last year. Experts say far-right RSS is doing ‘damage control’.

India’s Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological fountainhead of the Hindu far right, says it is organising visits to the United States and other Western countries to bolster its public image globally and dispel claims it is involved in violence against religious minority groups in India.

The visits announced on Tuesday come amid international criticism regarding minority rights in India and a few months after a US federal agency published a report accusing the group of carrying out acts of violence against minorities for decades.

Here is more about the RSS, and what’s behind the visits to Western nations.

What is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh?

The RSS is a right-wing Hindu volunteer organisation founded in 1925 by physician and Hindu nationalist Keshav Baliram Hedgewar in Nagpur, modern-day Maharashtra.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, sometimes called the Sangh for short, is Hindi for National Volunteer Organisation.

The RSS works across society, operating schools, hospitals, magazines and publishing houses, to advocate for the idea of Hindutva, a Hindu supremacist idea that aims to turn India from a constitutionally secular state into a Hindu one.

The RSS describes itself as a “Hindu-centric civilisational, cultural movement” that aims to “carry the nation to the pinnacle of glory”. It leads a network of more than 2,500 right-wing Hindu organisations called the Sangh Parivar, Hindi for RSS family.

“RSS is known as a fascist organisation because if you look at the writings of the first ideologues of RSS, they bring inspiration from Mussolini and Hitler,” Apoorvanand, a Hindi professor at the University of Delhi who writes literary and cultural criticism, told Al Jazeera.

BS Moonje, a Hindu Mahasabha party leader and mentor to Hedgewar, met Italian dictator Benito Mussolini in 1931, openly admired fascist youth and military organisations and saw them as a model for organising Hindu society.

MS Golwalkar, the second RSS chief, wrote a book in 1939 titled We, or Our Nationhood Defined, in which he cited Nazi Germany’s treatment of minorities as an example of preserving racial or national purity.

“You will find admiration towards the policies of Hitler. This is how they wanted to deal with the Muslims and Christians in India,” Apoorvanand, who goes by his first name, said.

“In the present times, their source of inspiration is Israel because Israel is also following the same policy towards Muslims and Christians – to eliminate them completely.”

The RSS has been banned in India several times, including in 1948 after a former member assassinated independence leader Mahatma Gandhi.

Does the RSS have ties to the government?

The RSS is often described as the ideological mothership of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP was formed in 1980 by former leaders of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS), including Hindu nationalist leader and poet Atal Bihari Vajpayee, after their split from the Janata Party coalition.

The BJP first came to power briefly in 1996 with Vajpayee as prime minister, but he resigned after 13 days when he failed to gain support for his government from a majority of members of parliament. He won again in 1998 and served as prime minister for 13 months before losing a no-confidence vote. Vajpayee later served a stable term from 1999 to 2004.

Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been a member of the RSS since 1972, began his first term in 2014, marking the first time the BJP had won a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament. In June 2024, Modi was sworn in as India’s prime minister for a third term. Modi, 75, joined the BJP in 1987.

Are hate crimes against minorities on the rise in India?

In 2025, incidents of hate speech against minorities in India, including Muslims and Christians, rose by 13 percent, according to the India Hate Lab, a United States-based research group. The majority of these instances occurred in states and union territories governed by the BJP.

Since 2015, a number of Muslims in India have been lynched by mobs during disputes about herding cattle or over allegations of eating beef. They have also fallen victim to targeted attacks.

Besides hate crime against Indian Muslims, there has been a marked spike in hate crimes against Christians in India recently. According to the India Hate Lab report, hate speech events targeting Christians rose from 115 in 2024 to 162 in 2025, a 41 percent increase.

Christian churches and prayer meetings have also been subjected to attacks in India.

Many observers lay the blame for this rise at the feet of the BJP and the RSS, which deny that they are responsible.

“What we’re seeing is a disturbing escalation in hate crimes, violence, bulldozer demolitions, discriminatory laws and hate speech targeting minorities along with the state using its full might, including the SIR, to systematically disenfranchise minority communities,” Raqib Hameed Naik, founder and executive director of the US think tank, the Center for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH), told Al Jazeera.

The SIR, or special intensive revision, is a revision of voter rolls that began last year. Critics of the exercise have said it has disproportionately removed Muslims and other minority communities from the rolls.

“What RSS General Secretary [Dattatreya] Hosabale has been saying, including denying any persecution of minorities, directly contradicts facts on the ground. It contradicts research and data from numerous international human rights organisations, including ours,” Naik said.

How is the RSS lobbying the West?

Hosabale said at a rare briefing with foreign media in New Delhi on Tuesday that he had been speaking to gatherings in the US, Germany and the United Kingdom to “dispel certain misgivings and misconceptions about the RSS”.

Speaking from the new 12-storey RSS office in New Delhi, Hosabale said the main allegations against the RSS were that the organisation was a “paramilitary organisation” that promotes “Hindu supremacist things” and “others have become second-class citizens”.

“The fact is entirely different,” he said.

Hosabale met with academics, policymakers and business leaders during his trips to the UK, US and Germany in April.

He spent six days in London and Rugby in central England, engaging with organisations including Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the International Centre for Sustainability in the City of London, according to the RSS website.

The website said a dinner with members of parliament was held that was attended by representatives of the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats.

After this, he visited the US, where he engaged with the Indian American community in multiple cities over 10 days. Hosabale also conducted discussions with the Hudson Institute, a Washington, DC-based conservative think tank.

Apoorvanand told Al Jazeera that the Indian Hindu diaspora is becoming financially powerful in the US and other countries. Diaspora supporters of the RSS help fund the organisation.

“While enjoying all the rights in the country they’re in where they have citizenship, they want India as a Hindu country,” he said.

After the US trip in April, Hosabale went to Germany for two days, where he met with German policy institutions and the Indian community. These included the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin-based foreign policy think tank advising the German government, and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a political foundation linked to Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union party.

“It is a dream of the RSS to create a network of right-wing conservative organisations worldwide,” Apoorvanand said.

Hosabale said on Tuesday that RSS leaders would continue to visit Europe as well as Southeast Asia and other regions to raise awareness about the organisation.

Why is the RSS conducting this outreach?

The RSS visits followed the publication of a report by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) in November. It said the RSS “has been involved in acts of extreme violence and intolerance against members of minority groups for decades”.

“RSS’s international outreach is essentially a knee-jerk reaction to the USCIRF recommendation to impose targeted sanctions against the organisation and its leaders for their role in the systematic persecution of minorities,” Naik told Al Jazeera.

The USCIRF is a bipartisan US federal body that tracks religious freedom worldwide and advises the president, the secretary of state and Congress on related policy.

“This recommendation came from a bipartisan body. That’s what makes it such a significant blow,” said Naik, who founded HindutvaWatch.org, a real-time database tracking hate crimes and human rights abuses in India.

Apoorvanand said several organisations within the European Union and the US have been investigating the state of minority rights in India.

If recommended sanctions against the RSS and its leaders are enacted, that could spell the collapse of its network, Naik added.

“It would make the RSS a pariah, including among diasporic Indians, some of whom have played a major role in funding and sustaining the organisation, especially before Modi came to power in 2014,” he said.

The RSS has “no option but to send their leaders to the US and other countries to do damage control and to push a counternarrative against the sanctions discourse that’s been gaining ground in policy circles,” he added.

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Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, calls for “dialogue and diplomacy” in a call with his Pakistani counterpart as Tehran prepares to respond to the US 14-point proposal to end the war.

US President Donald Trump says he had “very good talks” with Iran, “it’s very possible we’ll make a deal”.

Israel bombed Beirut in the first attack on the Lebanese capital since the “ceasefire”, in name only, started on April 17.

Hamas condemns Israel’s attacks on Gaza as a continuation of Israel’s “war of extermination”.

US, Iran have a ‘mutual desperation’ to emerge as a victor in negotiations

The US and Iran both feel a “deep antagonism” towards the other and a “mutual desperation” to each come out on top in negotiations, says Samir Puri, visiting lecturer at King’s College London.

“Iran has been severely battered by several weeks of high-intensity warfare, so the choice [during diplomatic efforts] may actually come down to the following, is it better to find an off-ramp or to risk returning to full-scale hostilities?” Puri told Al Jazeera.

The best chance of finding an off-ramp is for both sides to reach an agreement regarding nuclear enrichment, said Puri.

Iran needs to be able to sign up to a deal “that it doesn’t see as much of a concession” and that the US can hail “as a great victory”, said Puri.

An arrangement regarding the Strait of Hormuz also needs to be reached, “which is probably the trickier one than enrichment at this point,” added Puri.

If a “workable deal” on these and a few more key issues can’t be reached, this “situation will just rumble on as an unresolved conflict, with every possibility of reigniting in the near future,” he added.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it set a 30-day deadline for the US military to end its blockade of ports, adding President Trump “must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal”.

Trump says he’ll review the plan Iran sent via Pakistan but does not think he can make a deal.

The comments come after Iran sent a 14-point plan to the US calling for guarantees of non-aggression, the lifting of a naval blockade, and an end to the war “on all fronts“, including in Lebanon.

 Prices are surging in Iran, and millions of jobs have been lost as the war with the US and Israel causes escalating economic damage.

Food and medicine, cars, electrical devices and petrochemical products are among the many items that cost more this Saturday, the first day of the working week, than a week ago.

A toxic mix of mismanagement, the bombardment of Iran’s infrastructure, US sanctions, and the naval blockade is pummelling the country of more than 90 million people. In addition, the government-imposed, near-total internet shutdown is into its third month.

On top of all that, the national currency, the rial, has sunk to a new all-time low of 1.84 million against the US dollar.

Israeli army intercepts Hezbollah rockets in southern Lebanon

The Israeli army has reported intercepting Hezbollah rockets after alerts were activated in the Menara area, northern Israel. The rockets were reportedly targeting Israeli soldiers now stationed in southern Lebanon.

The army said that its Air Force intercepted one launch, while other rockets fell in open areas, with no casualties. It added that it launched interceptors toward several suspected aerial targets identified in the area where Israeli forces are operating.

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An Iranian army spokesperson says Iran is still in a “war situation” as the Strait of Hormuz remains a major sticking point in negotiations.

As Gulf leaders meet in Saudi Arabia, Qatar says the critical waterway should not be used as a pressure card and warns against the possibility of a “frozen conflict”.

US President Donald Trump’s national security team is reviewing an Iranian plan to halt the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, while postponing talks on its nuclear programme.

Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire as the death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon since an April 17 “ceasefire” rises to at least 40 people.

US sanctions entities, individuals involved in Iran ‘shadow banking’

Amid deadlocked US-Iran negotiations, the US Treasury Department has announced it’s imposing sanctions on 35 Iranian entities and individuals playing a role in Iran’s “shadow banking” networks.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said illicit funds – amounting to tens of billions of dollars funnelled by the designated entities and individuals – supported Iran’s “terrorist operations”.

Any firms making “toll payments” to Iran for passage through the blocked Strait of Hormuz face “significant sanctions”, its Office of Foreign Assets Control said.

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Senior Iranian officials have blamed Washington for stalled peace negotiations due to the United States naval blockade of the country’s ports, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it captured two foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and opened fire on a third ship for violating maritime regulations.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants “dialogue and agreement” but “breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations”.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said no deadline has been set by US President Donald Trump for the extension of his ceasefire on Iran, adding that it will be the president’s decision when the truce ends.

Lebanon has condemned Israel for the targeted killing of Lebanese newspaper correspondent Amal Khalil and the wounding of journalist colleague Zeinab Faraj, despite a negotiated ceasefire between both countries, which Israel has violated daily with deadly attacks and demolitions of Lebanese homes.

Lebanese president condemns killing of journalist Amal Khalil as ‘crime against humanity’

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has expressed his condolences over the death of Al Akhbar journalist Amal Khalil, who was killed by an Israeli attack in the town of al-Tayri, and extended his wishes for the swift recovery of colleague Zeinab Faraj, who was seriously wounded in the same attack.

Aoun said in a post on X that Israel’s “deliberate and consistent targeting of journalists” was aimed at “concealing the truth of its aggressive acts against Lebanon”.

Such acts constitute “crimes against humanity punishable under international laws and conventions”, the president said, adding that the killing of Khalil should serve as “an incentive for the international community to intervene and put an end to them”.

The president also extended his condolences to Khalil’s family, to Al Akhbar newspaper, and to the broader Lebanese and Arab media community, describing the slain journalist as having “joined the caravan of martyred journalists who preceded her on the path of martyrdom in the land of the South”.

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Tehran is ‘fully prepared’ for US to resume hostilities at any moment, says Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf.

Iran and the United States have made progress in negotiations but are still a long way from a deal, according to Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator – amplifying concerns about a possible return to war when their ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday.

In a nationally televised address on Saturday night, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that despite “progress” with the US, “many gaps and some fundamental points remain… we are still far from the final discussion”.

On Sunday, Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, said that US ⁠President ⁠Donald Trump cannot justify depriving Tehran of what he called its ‘nuclear rights’.

“Trump says Iran ⁠cannot make use of its nuclear ⁠rights, but doesn’t say ⁠for what crime. ⁠Who is he to deprive a nation ‌of its rights?” Pezeshkian was quoted as ‌saying by the Iranian Student News Agency.

The future of Iran’s nuclear programme and the Strait of Hormuz are key sticking points in the negotiations.

The latest comments from the political leadership came after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, less than 24 hours after reopening it. The reversal, it said, was due to the continuing naval blockade of Iranian ports by the US.

Ghalibaf, one of Iran’s top negotiators, called Washington’s blockade “ignorant” and “foolish”, saying Tehran would not allow others to transit the strait if its own ships were blocked.

He also said Iranian forces are “fully prepared” for the US to resume hostilities at any moment.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said Iranian officials are using the strait, through which 20 percent of globally traded oil normally transits, “as a pressure point” in negotiations, calling it perhaps the “most important bargaining chip”.

‘Start dropping bombs again’

Mediators have been pushing for a second round of US-Iran peace talks, after a first round in Islamabad ended on April 12 with no deal. The White House had said another round would likely be held in Islamabad. But Iran’s deputy foreign minister said on Saturday that no date could be set before the two sides agree on a “framework of understanding”, accusing Washington of maintaining a “maximalist” stance.

Donald Trump gave a series of mixed remarks on Saturday, saying Iran “got a little cute” on the Strait of Hormuz and that the US would not be “blackmailed”. The president added that US and Iranian officials remained in contact and negotiations were “working out really well”.

Earlier in the day, Trump said the US would “have to start dropping bombs again” if no deal was reached by Wednesday, when the ceasefire is due to end.

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Leavitt is next asked about the Iran ceasefire, and says that reports the US has asked to formally extend it are « not true ».

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has landed in Iran as part of a delegation to hold high-level talks on the resumption of talks between Iran and the US.

Iran’s army has warned it will block trade through the Red Sea along with the Gulf and Sea of Oman if the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues.

The US military says it has “completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea” as its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues for a second day.

US President Donald Trump says the war is “close to over” after hinting at a second round of face-to-face talks with Iran in Pakistan in the coming days.

« We remain very much engaged in these talks, » she says, and conversations are « productive and ongoing ».

On reports that there are in-person talks being planned, she says « those discussions are being had but nothing is official until you here it from us here at the White House ».

« We feel good about the prospects of a deal », Leavitt says, adding that it’s « in the best interests of Iran » to meet Trump’s demands – which she says he’s made « very clear ».

If talks happen, they would « very likely » be in the same place they were last time – Islamabad – she says.

Five Israeli soldiers wounded in south Lebanon

The army says on X that one soldier was “seriously wounded” and four others were lightly wounded “as a result of rocket fire in southern Lebanon”.

The army did not provide further details, but Israeli Army Radio is reporting that they were wounded in Bint Jbeil, where fighting is currently raging between Hezbollah and the Israeli army.

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The trade deal between India and the European Union is as much about geopolitics as it’s about intercontinental business relations.

The EU is already India’s largest partner with trade in goods reaching $142.3bn (£104.07bn) in 2024, amounting to 11.5% of the South Asian nation’s total trade. India is the EU’s ninth largest trading partner.

These are impressive numbers and reflect strong relations. And yet, trade talks were stuck for two decades.

That raises the question: what’s changed now? The answer lies in the fast-evolving geopolitical landscape and the unpredictability of the US administration under President Donald Trump.

The US leader has used tariffs as a bargaining chip in some negotiations but he has often used them to punish countries, including partners, which don’t agree with his worldview.

The US has imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, which include a 25% penalty for Delhi’s refusal to stop buying oil from Russia.

Some EU countries recently faced fresh tariff threats from Trump as the US president was put out by their refusal to accept his proposed takeover of Greenland. He later withdrew the threat, but experts say it did rattle the EU.

The EU and India are not alone in looking to hedge their bets when it comes to the US – the free trade agreement (FTA) in Delhi was secured amid a flurry of countries striking deals and patching things up as they try to cope with global unpredictability.

The EU-India pact – the seventh trade deal India has completed recently – comes after Brussels signed a trade accord with South American trade bloc Mercosur earlier this month after 25 years of negotiation. Experts say the Trump factor helped speed that up too, though it’s now facing legal challenges in Europe.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney – who warned of a « rupture » in the post-war international order last week – is just back from a visit resetting ties in China which will boost trade ties, drawing Trump’s ire and fresh threats of 100% tariffs. Carney is also due to travel to India in the near future, with trade high on the agenda. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is heading to Beijing this week, accompanied by dozens of British business executives, following years of strained ties with China.

Against this backdrop, the India-EU trade deal, which is still subject to ratification, assumes greater geopolitical significance as it achieves more than just trade results – for both Brussels and Delhi.

It sends a message to Trump that global powers have started to look at ways to club together to protect themselves against his administration.

« One could argue that the Trump factor provided a very strong impetus to the deal because both India and the EU are facing shock US tariffs that they never expected, » said Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council.

He added that Trump is a big reason why the EU and India have been able to overcome most of their differences and put issues they couldn’t resolve on the back-burner for future negotiations.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen both called Tuesday’s agreement « the mother of all deals ».

« This is the tale of two giants – the world’s second and fourth largest economies – two giants who choose partnership in a true win-win fashion, a strong message that co-operation is the best answer to global challenges, » said von der Leyen, standing beside Modi after they exchanged agreements.

« By combining these strengths, we reduce strategic dependencies at a time when trade is increasingly weaponised… We are not only making our economies stronger – we are also delivering security for our people in an increasingly insecure world. »

Modi said the global order is in « great turmoil » and the trade deal would strengthen supply chains globally.

« This means it is not just a trade agreement. This is a new blueprint for shared prosperity, » he said.

The two leaders’ may or may not have intended the deal to annoy the Trump administration, but they appear to have done exactly that.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told ABC News on Sunday that the EU was « financing the war against themselves » by signing a trade deal with Delhi.

He was referring to India’s purchase of Russian crude, which US officials have often said was indirectly financing Moscow’s war in Ukraine. India has always denied this, saying the purchase of Russian oil secures energy needs of millions of its people.

The time-tested Delhi-Moscow relations are also the reason why India has been reluctant to abruptly cut business ties with Russia. It has long relied on Moscow for military hardware but today’s deal will help it build on already strong defence ties with France as it looks to diversify its defence imports portfolio with other European nations too.

The India deal also gives the EU access to another huge market and may help it reduce its reliance on China in the future.

« India will also look at this partnership as a way to counter China’s dominance in global trade, which it envisaged doing with the US. But it’s a different state of play right now. The EU likewise sees India as a useful country to partner within its own efforts to counter China, » Kugelman added.

But it’s worth remembering that behind the chest-thumping headlines, there is still plenty of work to do for both India and the EU. While negotiations around the deal have concluded, the formal signing of the agreement will take a long time..

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Following the death of Pope Francis, ​​the Catholic Church begins an election process which has remained unchanged for 800 years.

When the newly elected Pope Francis stepped onto the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica in 2013 to greet the crowd, he joked that the cardinals had gone “to the end of the world” – his native Argentina – to find a new pontiff.

Indeed, the conclave, stunned by the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI, had been actively looking beyond Europe for a powerful communicator bold enough to take on the leadership of an institution plagued by sexual and financial scandals.

But as 135 cardinals, those under the age of 80, as per the voting rules, prepare to gather for a new papal conclave following Francis’s death, Vatican analysts say electors now appear to be looking for a sober and unifying figure who can piece together an institution shaken by his revolutionary style and bring stability to the Church’s central government.

“Francis was chosen because he would not have been afraid to create chaos and reform. The next pontiff must be someone who can calm things down,” said Andrea Gagliarducci, a Vatican analyst at the Catholic News Agency.

Striving for unity

Back in 2013, the goal was to shift the Church’s centre of gravity from Europe to Latin America – an indication of the growing influence of Christians there – and to restore order in the Curia, the central government of the Holy See that had come to be viewed by many as corrupt and dysfunctional.

Pope Francis did not shy away from the task. Throughout his papacy, he shook the status quo by radically shifting tone, style and priorities, causing excitement among reformers, but dismay among conservatives who accused him of diluting the Church’s teachings.

His reforms, such as allowing priests to bless same-sex couples (in certain circumstances) and overhauling the Vatican’s bureaucracy, infuriated many. His unpredictable governing style, which relied on a small group of confidantes and reduced the power of the Church’s central government, stirred tensions.

But Francis also frustrated some of the more liberal-leaning voices as his changes never seemed to translate into fundamental reforms in the Church’s doctrine, especially when it came to the role of women in the Church and same-sex marriage.

There is a consensus that the cardinals must focus on choosing a reassuring figure – someone who will not undo past progress, but equally will not push boundaries excessively.

“We must move towards a pope who finds unity in the diversity of the Church, maintains love for the poor, attention for the most marginalised, but who also rebuilds, and not restores, the governing institutions of the Church,” said Massimo Franco, a political columnist for Corriere della Sera and author of eight books about the Vatican.

Names have started to float around. A strong contender is Louis Antonio Tagle, 65, a close ally of Pope Francis and a progressive. If chosen, the Filipino would become the first Asian pontiff. There is also Cardinal Peter Erdo from Hungary, 72, a traditionalist and theologian known for opposing divorced Catholics receiving communion and his anti-migrant views. From the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, is known for his stance on human rights and anticorruption efforts.

Among Italians, the most recurrent name is Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s secretary of state, who played an important diplomatic role and was a central figure in Pope Francis’s leadership. Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, was the Vatican’s top official for Middle East affairs, and his experience in the region gained him widespread respect.

Looking to the Global South

Geographically speaking, the choice has never been wider. During his tenure, Francis appointed 80 percent of the cardinals who will vote at this conclave, and effectively changed the face of the clerical leadership by making it far more representative of the Global South.

The voting cardinals currently hail from 65 countries – many from Africa, Asia, South America and Oceania, with those from Europe now representing 39 percent of the total, compared with 52 percent in 2013. There are also fewer North Americans than there were before Pope Francis was elected.

This means that, for the first time, there will be more cardinals from the Global South than from Europe, even though Europeans still represent a relative majority.

Cardinals from the Global South have tended to be strongly aligned with Pope Francis’s push for progress on issues such as social justice, migration, climate change and ending the conflict in Gaza and Ukraine – even when that meant angering Western leaders who often expected the pontiff to take a stronger stance against Russia, or a softer one on Israel.

In one notable case during US President Donald Trump’s first presidency from 2017 to 2021, the pope spoke against the US-Mexico border wall, saying a person who builds walls instead of bridges was “not Christian”. Trump snapped back at the time, saying the pope’s questioning of his faith was “disgraceful”.

A more conservative outlook?

The Global South’s stronger presence in the conclave may ensure that such positions will not be overlooked by the Church going forward, said Marco Politi, a Vatican expert and author of the book, Pope Francis Among the Wolves.

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Still, being appointed by Francis does not necessarily translate into supporting his vision on all fronts. “Some of the new elected cardinals from the Global South are more conservative when it comes to social and gender issues, especially concerning the role of women and homosexuals’ rights within the Church,” said Politi.

For instance, DRC’s Cardinal Ambongo, who was made cardinal by Francis in 2019, was a staunch opponent of Francis’s push to allow priests to bless same-sex couples. The pushback was such that the pope was forced to dilute a 2023 landmark ruling and allow blessings only as long as they are not part of regular Church rituals or liturgies, nor given in contexts related to civil unions or weddings.

Another factor is that many of the cardinals barely know each other and, for at least 80 of them, this will be their first conclave and their first encounter with the complexities of the Church’s central government – an “intimidating” prospect even for those accustomed to it. Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales, joked to the BBC that he had thought the conclave would “pass me by” as he is only a few months off his 80th birthday. When he was informed that the pope was seriously ill, he realised: “Oh Lord, this is going to come my way.”

“The pope wanted to appoint cardinals from distant countries to increase the internationalisation of the Church, but they might have little knowledge of the structure of the Church as a world body that governs 1.4 billion people,” said Politi.

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While a date has not yet been set for when the cardinals will be sealed in secrecy inside the Sistine Chapel to vote for the next pope, for the next nine days, they will gather twice per day for pre-conclave meetings inside the Vatican.

It was at one of these congregazioni, as the meetings are called in Italian, before the 2013 conclave, that Jorge Mario Bergoglio gave a speech that propelled him to prominence. A few days later, he became Pope Francis.

All cardinals, including those over 80, can attend these meetings. As they present their positions on what they believe are the main issues the new pope should tackle, they may offer a clue as to just what kind of figure they are looking for.

World Opinions + Al Jazeera

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