War powers legislation talks reignite as Democrats push back on Trump’s justification for ‘preemptive’ strikes on Iran.

As the US and Israeli militaries expand their strikes on Iran, the administration of US President Donald Trump has alternated its justification for the war between preventing immediate attacks and countering the long-term existential threat of a nuclear Tehran.

This was on full display on Monday, with Trump and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth appearing to make the case that the culmination of Iran’s regional policies in the 47 years since the Islamic revolution, coupled with the future of its ballistic and nuclear programmes, represented an immediate threat to the US.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, argued that Washington’s close ally Israel was planning to attack Iran. In which event, the administration expected Iran to strike US assets, therefore justifying launching a preemptive attack, he said.

To date, the administration has offered little clear evidence to support any of its claims, according to advocates and analysts, as well as Democratic lawmakers who have recently attended classified briefings.

“The reality is, they’ve put forth very little evidence, and that’s a huge problem,” Emma Belcher, the president of Ploughshares, a group that advocates for denuclearisation, told Al Jazeera.

“It says, one: They don’t think they need to [make the case] for the war; that they won’t necessarily be held to account for it,” Belcher said. “But it also says to me that the evidence quite possibly isn’t there, and that they want to avoid particular scrutiny.”

Republicans have largely coalesced around the administration’s messaging, even as Democrats have pledged to force votes on war powers legislation to assert constitutional authority over the president’s military action.

Still, the administration remains in a tenuous political position as Trump’s Republican Party stares down midterm elections in November. Early public polling indicates little outright support from the US public, even as Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) base has been staid in its response.

But the more days that pass, and the more US service members are killed, the more likely that Trump will be confronted with the contradictions to his past anti-interventionist promises.

“The longer it goes on and the more costly it is in terms of lives… the more the lack of evidence becomes an albatross around the neck of the administration – one that it will have to account for come November,” according to Benjamin Radd, a senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center’s international relations department.

A kaleidoscope of claims

Speaking from the White House on Monday, Trump praised the “obliteration of Iran’s nuclear programme” in US strikes last June. But moments later, he claimed that efforts to rebuild that programme, coupled with Iran’s ballistic missile programme, represented a menace to the US.

“An Iranian regime armed with long-range missiles and nuclear weapons would be an intolerable threat to the Middle East, but also to the American people,” Trump said. “Our country itself would be under threat, and it was very nearly under threat.”

Trump also said that, if not for US and Israeli attacks, Iran “would soon have had missiles capable of reaching our beautiful America”.

Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Washington, DC-based Arms Control Association (ACA) said any claims of immediate or middle-term threats posed by Iran in terms of their ballistic and nuclear power are not supported by available evidence.

That is significant, as such “imminent threats” are required for a president justify attacks on foreign countries under both US domestic law and international law, save for approval from Congress.

World Opinions + Agencies

L’article Analysis.Trump admin offers scant evidence on Iranian threat in ‘America First’ war est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Iran’s Tasnim and Mehr news agencies report that Khamenei remains “steadfast and firm in commanding the field”.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed in Israeli-US attacks, according to Israeli media reports and a senior Israeli official.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed there were “growing signs” that Khamenei was killed in the joint US-Israeli strikes, which were launched early on Saturday.

The Reuters news agency, citing an unnamed senior Israeli official, reported that Khamenei’s body has ⁠been located.

But Iran’s Tasnim and Mehr news agencies reported Khamenei remained “steadfast and firm in commanding the field”.

In what appeared to be a response to the claims, the head of public relations at Khamenei’s office accused the country’s enemies of “mental warfare”.

“The enemy is resorting to mental warfare, all should be aware,” the public relations official was quoted as saying by Iranian state media.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said there has so far been no official confirmation from Tehran.

He noted that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News earlier that “as far as I know” Iran’s Supreme Leader, as well as other top Iranian officials remained in good health.

US President Donald Trump told NBC News in an interview that he believed reports of Khamenei’s death were a “correct story”

Saturday’s strikes on Iran targeted 24 provinces, killing at least 201 people, according to Iranian media reports, citing the Red Crescent.

Iran responded with a wave of counter attacks, targeting Israel and US military assets across the Middle East.

Netanyahu said in his address that many “senior figures” had been “eliminated” in the wave of military strikes targeting senior leaders as Trump called for the government to be toppled.

Israel, he said, had killed “commanders in the Revolutionary Guards and senior officials in the nuclear programme”. “And we will continue,” he said.

World Opinion + Agencies

L’article Reports. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed in US-Israeli attacks est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Les Iraniens désignent vendredi sans grand enthousiasme un nouveau président à l’occasion d’une élection qui devrait consacrer la victoire de l’ultraconservateur Ebrahim Raïssi.

Le guide suprême Ali Khamenei a ouvert le scrutin en votant à côté de ses bureaux quelques minutes après 7h00 (02h30 GMT).

L’ayatollah Khamenei a appelé ses compatriotes à accomplir leur « devoir » civique « le plus tôt » possible, insistant sur les « avantages sur la scène internationale » que le pays pourrait tirer selon lui d’une participation élevée.

Après trois semaines d’une campagne électorale terne, sur fond de ras-le-bol général à cause de la grave crise économique qui frappe l’Iran, les autorités ont décidé d’allonger la période d’ouverture des bureaux de vote, jusqu’à minuit (19h30 GMT) avec une extension possible jusqu’à 02h00 du matin samedi.

Il s’agit officiellement de permettre au plus grand nombre, parmi les près de 60 millions d’Iraniens en âge de voter, de se rendre aux urnes sereinement alors que le pays est durement frappé par la pandémie de Covid-19.

Les résultats définitifs du scrutin sont attendus pour samedi à la mi-journée.

A en croire les rares sondages disponibles, l’abstention pourrait atteindre un niveau inédit et dépasser les 57%.

Face à des appels au boycottage du scrutin relayés sur les réseaux sociaux, M. Khamenei a appelé a plusieurs reprises au cours des derniers mois ses compatriotes à participer au scrutin en masse pour élire un « président puissant ».

L’ultraconservateur Ebrahim Raïssi, chef de l’Autorité judiciaire âgé de 60 ans, fait figure d’archifavori, faute de concurrents à sa mesure après la disqualification de ses principaux adversaires politiques.

En mai, le Conseil des gardiens de la Constitution, organe non élu chargé du contrôle de la présidentielle, avait autorisé sept hommes à se présenter, parmi près de 600 candidats.

Mais il n’en reste plus que quatre, après le désistement de trois candidats mercredi, dont deux ont appelé à voter pour M. Raïssi.

Empêché de candidater, l'ex-président iranien Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a annoncé boycotter le scrutin présidentiel de vendredi. Entretien exclusif à Euronews. #Globalconversation https://t.co/WBoBIxmhDn

— euronews en français (@euronewsfr) June 15, 2021

« Choisir par moi-même »

Ce dernier avait obtenu 38% des voix il y a quatre ans.

Il est opposé à un député peu connu, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hachémi, un ancien commandant en chef des Gardiens de la Révolution, le général Mohsen Rézaï (qui avait obtenu moins de 11% des suffrages en 2013) et un technocrate, Abdolnasser Hemmati, ex-président de la Banque centrale.

« J’aime mon pays, mais je n’accepte pas ces candidats », témoigne auprès de l’AFP Abolfazl, un forgeron sexagénaire qui avait soutenu la Révolution islamique de 1979 mais est déçu qu’aujourd’hui « d’autres choisissent à sa place ».

Des propos qui reflètent un point de vue fréquemment exprimé et selon lequel, en dépit des dénégations des autorités, l’élection est jouée d’avance, voire organisée pour assurer la victoire de M. Raïssi.

« Pour la première fois depuis la fondation de la République islamique, l’élection du président se fera sans véritable compétition », écrit l’ancien ambassadeur de France Michel Duclos, dans une note de blog pour l’Institut Montaigne.

Le président a des prérogatives limitées en Iran, où l’essentiel du pouvoir est aux mains du guide suprême.

Le président sortant, le modéré Hassan Rohani, ne peut se représenter cette année après deux mandats consécutifs de quatre ans.

Son bilan est entaché par l’échec de sa politique d’ouverture après la dénonciation par les Etats-Unis en 2018 de l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien conclu trois ans plus tôt à Vienne.

Mécontentement et défiance

Le mécontentement et la défiance vis-à-vis des autorités s’expriment de plus en plus ouvertement face à la grave crise économique et sociale provoquée par le rétablissement des sanctions américaines ayant suivi la sortie des Etats-Unis de l’accord de Vienne.

A l’hiver 2017-2018 et en novembre 2019, deux vagues de contestation parties de revendications socio-économiques des classes populaires ont été violemment réprimées.

Pour l’opposition en exil et les ONG, M. Raïssi est l’incarnation de la répression et son nom associé aux exécutions massives de détenus de gauche en 1988, drame dans lequel il nie toute participation.

La priorité du prochain président devrait être le redressement de l’économie.

Sur ce point, tous les candidats s’accordent pour dire que cela doit nécessairement passer par la levée des sanctions américaines imposées sous la présidence Trump, objet des négociations en cours dans la capitale autrichienne pour sauver l’accord de Vienne en y réintégrant les Etats-Unis.

World Opinions News -agences

L’article L’Iran élit son président, l’ultraconservateur Raïssi part gagnant d’avance.. Vidéo est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Iran’s minority groups, and their struggle for equal rights, should not be remembered only during elections.

On June 18, the Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its 13th presidential election. This election will be one of the most critical in the country’s recent history for multiple reasons. The widening gap between the needs and desires of the Iranian people and those of the country’s rulers is profoundly undermining the regime’s legitimacy and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s power. Thus, the regime is in desperate need of a credible election that would give it renewed legitimacy. Nevertheless, due to the country’s ongoing political and economic crisis, and the Guardian Council’s decision to ban several prominent candidates from participating in the presidential race, the voter turnout on Friday is expected to be low, raising questions about the credibility of the election.

The seven candidates who have been approved by the Council to participate in the election are all focusing on different socio-economic and political issues in their campaigns and making promises to handle future challenges better than the current government to convince Iranians to come to the polls and vote for them.

One of the issues nearly all candidates touched upon during their campaigns was ethnic rights. In an effort to attract Iran’s ethnic minority groups – who together make up 40 to 50 percent of the population – to the polls, the candidates repeatedly expressed sympathy for their concerns. Two candidates, Mohsen Mehralizadeh and Abdolnasser Hemmati, even addressed the members of the Azeri minority in their mother tongue to garner their support. Nevertheless, despite cynically pandering to ethnic minorities to reach their electoral goals, none of the candidates made credible promises to these groups, or explicitly criticised the regime’s ethnic policies.

The issue of ethnic rights have long been part of electoral discussions and campaigns in Iran. During the 1997 presidential election, Muhammad Khatami promised to make wide reaching socio-economical reforms to ensure equality between all Iranians regardless of their ethno-sectarian backgrounds. Khatami’s ethnic promises successfully mobilised a large segment of ethnic minorities – especially Kurds and Baluchis – to vote in the election and carried him to the presidency. As a result, since Khatami’s election, presidential candidates – and especially reformists who are in a better position to garner the support of minorities seeking reforms and rights – have been courting Iran’s ethnic minority groups to realise their electoral ambitions.

The votes of ethnic minorities are also important for the state itself. Ethnic minorities not only make up a significant percentage of the general population, but they are also located all across the country. Thus, the regime needs them to participate in elections to enhance its legitimacy and national cohesiveness.

Khatami and other reformists that came after him, however, have routinely failed to keep the promises they made to ethnic minorities during their election campaigns after assuming power. And this trend continues to this day. Not only reformists, but also conservatives, moderates and hardliners routinely talk about ethnic rights during local and national elections to mobilise people to vote, but never even try to fulfil their promises when they assume power.

For instance, Hassan Rouhani, the current president of Iran, promised to allow ethnic and religious minorities to be involved in “in all political and administrative levels of government, including membership in the cabinet” during his presidential election campaign in 2013. He also pledged to allow the mother tongues of ethnic minority groups, such as Azeri, Kurdish and Arabic, to be taught in Iranian schools in compliance with the Article 15 of the Iranian constitution which states while the “Official language and writing script (of Iran)… is Persian … the use of regional and tribal languages in the press and mass media, as well as for teaching of their literature in schools, is allowed in addition to Persian.”

However, after winning the election, with the help of ethnic minorities, he failed to fulfil these promises. Recently he even stated that he does not understand the need for teaching the mother tongues of ethnic minorities in schools, claiming that such a move could even “pose a threat to the Persian language and marginalise it”.

The candidates’ tendency to pander to ethnic minority concerns during election cycles but ignore them completely once they assume power is widening the long existing trust gap between these groups and Iran’s political classes. This effect was most clearly seen during the Green Movement of 2009. While thousands in mostly Persian inhabited cities in Iran, such as Isfahan and Shiraz, rushed to the streets to protest in support of the reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi in the aftermath of the disputed 2009 presidential election, none of the provinces populated by ethnic minority groups joined the demonstrations.

Ethnic minority groups in Iran actively participated in the 1979 revolution, but have been completely sidelined from the political scene after it. The Islamic Republic’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, promised ethnic groups greater rights while the revolution was underway, but in the following years responded to their demands for equality by executing their leaders, destroying their homes and villages, and exposing them to other forms of state-sanctioned violence and discrimination. Since then, Iranian politicians across the political spectrum have been remembering ethnic minority groups during election seasons, making promises to them to secure their votes, but consequently turning a blind eye to their plight.

Today, this vicious cycle is still not broken, but it needs to be for the wellbeing of not only the Iranian people but also the state. If candidates who expressed their sympathy for these groups during their election campaigns once again ignore them after the June 18 election, the disenchantment between ethnic groups and Tehran will grow further. If those in power in Tehran continue with their oppressive ethnic policies, persistent Shia centric discourses and empty promises of equality, the Iranian people will remain divided, and the regime cannot make a renewed claim to legitimacy.

By Shukriya Bradost – PhD student in International Security at Virginia Tech University – Aljazeera

L’article It’s time for Tehran to start listening to ethnic minority groups est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.

Ali Khamenei a veillé, dans un discours, à apaiser la colère des députés conservateurs, après la signature d’un accord temporaire avec l’Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique dimanche 21 février.

« Le silence est signe d’approbation. » Ce proverbe persan prend tout son sens dans l’analyse des discours du Guide suprême iranien, Ali Khamenei. Lundi 22 février, la plus haute autorité du pays ne s’est guère prononcée sur l’accord conclu la veille à Téhéran entre le directeur général de l’Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique (AIEA), Rafael Grossi, et le gouvernement de Hassan Rohani, prévoyant de maintenir une surveillance des activités nucléaires, bien que « réduite », pendant trois mois.

Le fait qu’Ali Khamenei passe sous silence l’accord conclu avec l’AIEA laisse penser que le Guide ne compte pas, à ce stade, s’opposer à la démarche du président Rohani. Ce dernier veut gagner du temps pour laisser la place à la diplomatie et tenter de sauver l’accord nucléaire, fragilisé depuis le retrait unilatéral américain en 2018. Dans son discours, Ali Khamenei a toutefois reconnu les différends entre le gouvernement et le Parlement, majoritairement conservateur et opposé à l’accord nucléaire.

Tentant de jouer les équilibristes, le Guide suprême a fait l’éloge de la loi votée en décembre par les députés pour réduire les engagements de l’Iran dans le cadre de l’accord, et notamment restreindre l’accès de l’AIEA à ses sites nucléaires et militaires. Selon cette loi, l’Iran doit, dès le 23 février, mettre fin à l’application du protocole additionnel à l’accord de 2015, autorisant l’agence à effectuer des inspections sur court préavis dans les sites qui ne lui ont pas été déclarés.

L’accès régulier, y compris l’accès quotidien des inspecteurs au site-clé de Natanz (Centre), sera également suspendu. « Le gouvernement se voit obligé d’appliquer cette loi, qui est une bonne loi, a déclaré le Guide suprême. Le désaccord doit être résolu et il ne doit pas y avoir de divisions. » Il a aussi veillé à rassurer l’aile la plus dure du régime, en évoquant la possibilité pour l’Iran d’enrichir l’uranium à 60 %, si besoin.

World Opinions News – AFP

L’article En Iran, le soutien feutré du Guide suprême à l’accord sur le nucléaire est apparu en premier sur World Opinion | Alternative Média.